000 FXUS61 KBGM 271408 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 908 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Periods of light snow showers or flurries will continue this morning before abating this afternoon. Another upper level disturbance will bring another round of snow showers or flurries Saturday morning. More unsettled weather and mixed precipitation is expected on Sunday, with colder temperatures to start next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 900 AM Update: Lake effect snow showers are drifting east, with some flurries still developing on the back side of these scattered showers. PoPs were increased for the next hour for those areas that are currently under the heavier snow showers. As the flow shifts today, these snow showers will retreat northward, so little change was needed to PoPs late this morning and afternoon. There have been some breaks in the clouds with the sun peaking through, but most of the region remains under mostly cloudy skies. Some minor tweaks were made to sky cover for this morning as these areas of clearing will likely fill back in. Observed winds were a little lighter than forecast, so minor adjustments were made to those as well. 342 AM Update: Flurries are still scattered about the area, mainly in Central NY, but also sneaking into the Hazleton area recently. More widespread snow showers are over western NY and PA, apparently associated with a shortwave trough moving across Lake Erie. These snow showers will spread ENE into northern parts of our CWA over the next few hours, with scattered flurries extending further south into the Twin Tiers. Accumulations will range from around 1 inch across the Finger Lakes and across our northern counties, with barely a dusting further south. In the wake of the shortwave trough we`ll see some breaks of sun this afternoon. However, another approaching disturbance will approach the area tonight, with another round of light snow showers and/or flurries expected through Saturday morning. Precip will end by midday, with some partial sunshine expected. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 3 AM update... Surface low pressure in Illinois will move northeast this period with a track just north of the US/Canadian border. This will bring snow and rain showers to our area mostly on Sunday. Amounts will be light with the better forcing to our north. The only place with significant snow will be northern Oneida County with 1 to 3 inches of snow. The timing of the precipitation is not good for snow being afternoon. Warmer air comes in at low levels pushing surface temperatures into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Sunday morning lows start out warm from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Oneida County is a few degrees this period. On Sunday south winds will be 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southwest. Colder air comes in behind the front late Sunday changing rain to snow but by then the moisture is gone. A quick but weak lake response is likely but high pressure builds in late Sunday night to shut it down. Low temperatures will range from around 30 in the Wyoming Valley to around 20 along the NYS thruway to teens in the Tug. Snowfall Sunday evening will be less than an inch. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 3 AM update... Models trending colder with a storm track to our south. PA and NY will be under a broad upper level trough. The best chance of snow is still Tuesday night to Wednesday but the ECMWF keeps the storm south of the area. The GFS is still weak. This period will be unsettled but with mostly light snow showers. Monday another quick moving high passes through. It will start as snow but mix with rain from the southern tier into NEPA in the afternoon. Colder air will come in Monday night setting off some lake response lasting into Tuesday. Another system goes through Tuesday night to Wednesday followed by more lake effect snow. Temperatures overall during the long term period look to be on a cooling trend with near to slightly above normal temperatures expected on Monday (highs in the 30s to around 40), but below normal temperatures Tuesday through Thursday (highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s Tuesday and Wednesday; upper teens to 20s for Thursday). && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Lake-enhanced snow showers have increased across central NY and far northeastern PA over the past hour in response to an upper level shortwave moving in from the west. Activity should diminish by around 13-14Z, and may pick up again later this morning as another disturbance rolls through. Expect marginal MVFR to VFR conditions outside of snow showers, and brief IFR visbys as snow showers pass through. This will mainly affect Central NY terminals, with just a few flurries possible at AVP. Winds will shift to the SW later today ending the lake effect snow and persistent flurries. Any remaining MVFR ceilings will improve to VFR, most likely holding out the longest at ITH and BGM. Another approaching disturbance will bring lower ceilings back into the picture during the pre-dawn hours Saturday. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR; some restrictions possible in the morning as a weak disturbance rolls through with a few rain/snow showers. Sunday through Tuesday...Restrictions possible in rain and snow showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPH NEAR TERM...BTL/MPH SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...BJT/TAC AVIATION...BTL/MPH
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