000
FXUS61 KBGM 082325
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
625 PM EST Mon Mar 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak system passes through the region this evening with a
slight chance for a wintry mix. Much warmer weather is expected
through the middle of the week with climbing temperatures well
above normal. Rain chances increase later in the week with a
passing cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
550 PM Update...

Only made minor adjustments to sky cover and hourly temperatures
and dew points for the next several hours. Some weak radar
returns have been picked up across the far northern portion of
our area (mainly Oneida County). Expectation is that this is
just virga at the moment with such a dry airmass in place.
Therefore did not make any adjustments to PoPs with this update.
The previous discussion remains valid.

330 PM Update...

Surface ridging over the region will continue to push eastward
this evening and through tonight. Meanwhile, a weak upper level
disturbance and associated surface warm front pushes across
the northern forecast area tonight. Moisture is very limited
and forecast soundings shows column of moisture becoming
unzipped with only a very shallow column of saturated air
hanging on after midnight below 5K feet. Any potential for a
wintry mix will be early in the night, as the saturated column
of air in the midlevels exists to about -12C. However, at that
time, plenty of dry air will still remain near the surface and
this could result in just VIRGA or a very light shower of
rain/snow or wintry mix.

Have kept PoPs at slight chance to low chance through the first
half of the night, but after midnight there will be a loss of
ice crystals with a shallow saturated layer to only -4C or -5C,
so likely the main P-type will be a drizzle or freezing drizzle
by early Tuesday morning. Either way, the precipitation amounts
will be so light from a trace to 0.01" and mainly confined to
far Northern Oneida County and far northwestern Catskills, that
any impacts from freezing precipitation is not expected at this
time.

Ridging aloft starts to build in across the area again tomorrow
which will dry things out and allow skies to clear off later in
the day. Temperatures will also be on the rise with highs into
the mid 40s to mid 50s expected. Overnight, skies will clear and
radiational cooling should take just about everywhere back below
freezing, with low 20s expected across the far north and the
Catskills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 pm update...

Wednesday will be dry and warm. High pressure moves off to the east
setting up a warm south low level flow under an upper level broad
ridge. Surface temperatures rise into the low 50s far east to upper
50s for the Finger Lakes to the Wyoming Valley.

Wednesday night into Thursday rain slowly approaches from the
northwest ahead of a slow moving cold front. This associated with
surface low pressure moving northeast into the western Great Lakes.
Rain showers may move into the far north late Wednesday night with
low chance pops. The pops don`t increase much in the morning then
increase late in the day to high chance for the Finger Lakes and
western Mohawk Valley. Rain amounts will be under a tenth of an inch
before 7 PM. In the Catskills and northeast PA it will remain dry.

The southerly flow continues Wednesday night keeping temperatures
warm with lows from the mid 30s to the mid 40s. Dewpoints will be in
the mid and upper 30s helping to ripen the snow but winds will be 10
mph or less. Thursday will be the warmest day of the week now with
highs in the 60s. Snow will ripen more Thursday as dewpoints rise
into the 40s and southwest winds rise to 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM Update...

A weak cold front begins to move through Thursday night
bringing a chance of rain to the area. PoPs remain highest
across most of CNY with Likely PoPs north of I-86. Temps will
remain mild overnight, only dropping into the 40s. Rain
continues Friday morning but PoPs begin to decrease by Friday
afternoon as rain shower activity deteriorates. Guidance
increased the daytime temps a little bit higher than the
previous update. With the morning cloud cover, daytime heating
will be limited to the afternoon, so daytime high temps were set
a degree below guidance. Even still, temps will top out in the
50s and maybe some low 60s in NEPA. By late Friday evening, the
cold front and rain move through, resulting in dry conditions
overnight. Overnight temps will fall to the 20s and 30s. QPF
totals will be less than a quarter of an inch.

There is another slight chance for some precipitation late Friday
night and into early Saturday morning. A weak front to our south and
a weak system that sweeps across the Great Lakes could bring some
rain then wintry mix or snow to most of the area with South-Central
NY staying dry. Any accumulations will be light. Both of these
systems are short lived though and quickly move out by Saturday
afternoon as high pressure moves into the area. As colder air moves
in, Saturday will feel more seasonable with daytime temps in the
upper 30s and low 40s. Overnight temps will fall to the 20s.

The dry trend continues through Sunday with mostly sunny to partly
cloudy skies. Temperatures will remain seasonable to finish out the
weekend. A cool, wet start to next week is possible as another
system approaches the area, but a lot of uncertainty remains on the
timing of the event.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A weak storm system with limited moisture will pass through our
northern terminals Tuesday morning with a brief period of MVFR
ceilings.

Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours
with winds between 5 and 10 knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday evening through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Possibly some
early morning fog Wednesday.

Thursday through Friday...occasional restrictions possible in
scattered rain showers.

Saturday...Lake effect snow showers may bring restrictions in
Central NY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Minor flooding is possible late this week due to mostly snowmelt
across the north branch Susquehanna in CNY and the west branch
of the Delaware River. Temperatures warm into the 50s and 60s
Wednesday to Friday. Dewpoints are above freezing, peaking in
the 40s. Winds are mostly light and around 10 mph. Snow will
ripen quickly Wednesday then slowly melt. Where the snow water
equivalent is low such as the Chemung and Finger Lakes streams
and rivers will rise but not flood. Snowmelt runoff across the
headwaters of the north branch Susquehanna, Delaware headwaters,
and Oneida Lake basin could amount to several inches of liquid.
This runoff will be over a long period from late Wednesday into
Friday night so streams and rivers will rise slowly.

Rainfall with a cold front Friday will be brief and light with
amounts under half an inch. For a major flood several inches of
rain would be needed which is not at all likely.

As the flood threat nears more details will be given. Flood
watches and warnings could also be issued later this week.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...BJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion