000 FXUS61 KBGM 101747 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 147 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Other than isolated showers and storms today, dry conditions are expected through most of the weekend. The next system moves in late Sunday, bringing much needed rainfall and a rainy start to next week. Temperatures trend warmer through the weekend but cool down again next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1015 AM Update... Fog has finally lifted and dispersed for most locations. Clouds continue to stream NW to SE across Central NY and parts of NE PA this morning. However sunshine was noted west of the Ithaca, Towanda and Elmira area...with much thicker cloud cover remaining further east. Near term guidance shows this cloud cover gradually scattering out by early/mid afternoon. Also made some minor tweaks to the PoPs/Wx grids this afternoon and evening based on the latest CAMs...leaned heavier on the 3km NAM nest, as it was handling the isolated showers and clouds pretty well this morning. Expecting isolated to perhaps scattered showers and isolated t`storms to develop after 2 PM this afternoon and continue until around sunset...mainly across NE PA and the Catskills. Otherwise it is looking partly to mostly sunny and warm by mid to late afternoon areawide...with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Also adding in some patchy fog after midnight tonight into early Sunday morning; mainly in the river valleys and surrounding locations. 600 AM Update... Fog remains present and is the current forecast challenge. While some locations were locked in all night, others were late to join the party. Some sites are improving quicker than expected while others continue to fall despite the sun beginning to rise. Morning commuters will need to be aware of patchy fog and reduced visibilities. As for the rest of the forecast, some minor adjustments were made to the hourly temperatures to better match the latest observations. Sky cover was also touched up. Everything else was looking good and did not need to be updated. 315 AM Update... Patchy fog early this morning will clear out after sunrise. A weak shortwave will pass through later this morning and into the afternoon, kicking off isolated showers today. Similar to yesterday, instability will be weak though shear will be a little stronger with values up to 30 kts. Because of this, isolated thunderstorms with some non-severe, gusty winds will also be possible today. With short range model guidance all being different, the HREF and previous forecast were favored for PoPs. Other than the isolated showers/storms today, conditions will be dry as weak high pressure builds in and the upper-level low that has been in control all week has finally moved out of the region. These dry conditions continue through most of the day Sunday as an upper- level ridge moves through. Ahead of the next system, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon across portions of north-central NY. Temperatures trend warmer throughout the weekend thanks to shifts in the flow. Today, temps will climb into the 70s as the nightly lows will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Strong southerly flow will advect warmer air into the region Sunday. As a result, temps will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 345 AM Update... A change in the weather pattern will finally bring a widespread rainfall to the region. Upper level ridging will shift eastward into the Atlantic Sunday night into Monday. Deep southerly to south-westerly flow will bring an increase in moisture to the region, with PWATs climbing over 1.5" by Monday morning. A surface low pressure system will track northeast across the Great Lakes with triple point likely tracking across western NY. Light to moderate rainfall starts overspreading the region late Sunday night/early Monday morning as isentropic lift overspreads Central NY. As surface low tracks further north through the day on Monday, it will slowly drag a trailing cold front across the region Monday afternoon and evening. A period of heavier convective rain showers will be possible as the front pushes through, but at this time it appears minimal instability will exist with forecast soundings only showing about 200 J/kg of CAPE. Also, models are indicating a dry slot pushing in from the southwest Monday night which should bring an end to the widespread rain showers. The mostly cloudy and wet conditions on Monday will keep temperatures cool, with highs only in the low 70s for most of the area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 355 AM Update... Low pressure becomes vertically stacked over the Great Lakes on Tuesday and will slowing drift eastward into New York by mid week. The upper level low will be the main weather player through at least mid week and after a dry slot pushes through on Tuesday, shower activity is expected to increase again late Tuesday night and persist on and off through the period, with the greatest chance coming Wednesday afternoon. The stacked low slowly fills Wednesday, but upper level troughing likely remains overhead through the end of the week with mostly diurnally driven showers continuing again on Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 145 PM Update Just some sct to bkn mid and high level clouds over the region this afternoon. Cloud bases are mainly 4k ft agl to 12k ft agl at this time, and should slowly rise heading into the late afternoon and evening. There is a slight chance for isolated showers and even a thunderstorms; mainly across the Twin Tiers and NE PA (ELM, BGM & AVP) between about 19z and 01z this afternoon/evening. Coverage and confidence was too low at this time to include a mention in any of the tafs...will continue to monitor satellite and radar trends and add into the taf forecast if necessary. Otherwise, the rest of this evening and much of the overnight should feature VFR conditions. Did add in a tempo (low to moderate confidence) for patchy MVFR fog at ELM toward daybreak Sunday. Then, continued VFR conditions expected areawide through the end of this taf period (18z Sunday) with more sct to bkn high level clouds arriving. west-northwest winds 5-15 kts this afternoon, become light and variable after sunset. Winds then turn southeasterly on Sunday, under 10 kts. Outlook... Sunday afternoon...Mainly VFR. Chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms especially SYR-RME-ITH. Brief restrictions possible associated with these. Sunday Night through Monday...Restrictions likely with numerous showers, periods of rain, patchy fog and isolated thunderstorms expected. Monday night and Tuesday: Becoming mainly VFR; a chance for patchy fog. Tuesday night through Thursday: Possible restrictions with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms around under an upper level low pressure system. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTL NEAR TERM...BTL/MJM SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...BTL/MJM
NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion
Random Fact
Weather Terms |