000
FXUS61 KBGM 230540
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
140 AM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A large high pressure system, will continue our dry and
seasonably cool weather, through Monday. An approaching frontal
complex, will bring the likelihood of showers, starting Monday
night, and lasting through the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
845 pm update...
Very quiet weather this evening with a layer of high clouds
continuing to stream across the region sw to ne. Clouds still
might be thin enough to allow for radiational cooling at the
surface later tonight which may lead to patchy valley fog. Minor
adjustments made to the cloud cover forecast. Otherwise, no
major changes made to the forecast.

3 pm update...
Drier air in the lower levels is gradually pushing across
CNY/NEPA this afternoon, from NE-SW, as evidenced by an erosion
of the lower cloud mass.

This should lead into a clear-partly cloudy night, with higher
level clouds slowly thinning out over time. Given increasingly
good radiating conditions and wet soils, valley fog seems quite
likely over the twin tiers. Temperatures will be quite cool,
with lows by daybreak ranging in the 40s. A few normally colder
valleys could even dip into the upper 30s.

After morning fog burns off, Sunday looks like a fine autumn
day, with lots of sunshine, and afternoon highs in the 60s.

Sunday night will be mostly clear and cool again, although
likely not quite as chilly as Saturday night. It`s questionable
how much valley fog will form in the pre-dawn hours, as model
sounding profiles show increasing winds from the SE just above
the surface. We`ll leave out of the forecast for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
345 PM Update...
Well, it does not take very long for rain to return to the
forecast, in what has been a fairly busy pattern.

Upper ridge will initially be in charge Monday, but a moist wave
will mark the beginning of southwest flow aloft as we head into
Monday night. At the surface, anticyclonic flow around high
pressure in New England, will present another cool air damming
scenario to hold highs only in the 60s for the majority of the
area Monday; coolest east. Initially, there will be a lot of dry
air in the lower to mid levels during the day Monday, then
clouds and rain chances will quickly increase Monday night as
the upper wave arrives aloft in tandem with southeast low level
flow advecting in marine moisture.

While the warm front aloft will press through the region
Tuesday, at the surface the boundary may be hung up due to
continued shallow southeasterly flow. Eventually the warm
sector overcomes the area Tuesday night, with very mild
temperatures. Highs of mainly 60s Tuesday, will be followed by
little change in temperature Tuesday night due to strong warm
air advection.

Best shot of rain appears to be late Monday night to midday
Tuesday as the moist wave aloft eventually top-down moistens
through the column. However, showers will still be generally
around later Tuesday through Tuesday night from embedded
smaller shortwaves in the southwest flow aloft. Thunder does not
look probable through Tuesday morning, though a touch of
instability aloft Tuesday afternoon into evening could lead to
isolated rumbles. Though showers do not look particularly heavy
on the shorter time frames, it will be a rather extended period
of light to moderate rain. Parts of our area are extremely
sensitive to additional rainfall so we will have to keep an eye
on the potential for locally excessive rain. Areal average
forecast rainfall totals for Monday night through Tuesday are
currently a half inch to inch, generally heaviest southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
405 PM Update...
Still wet on Wednesday, then things overall trend a bit drier
though not completely without chances for rain at times.

Showers are appearing very likely Wednesday, along with a chance
of thunder, as a cold front moves through. As mentioned above,
with soils sensitive to additional rainfall and being re-primed
with moisture Monday night through Tuesday; potential for
locally excessive rainfall will need to be monitored.

Though the front should press through, some models provide jet
support into Thursday to potentially delay the exit of the front
and allow a small chance for lingering showers especially the
southeastern zones. Either way, a secondary frontal system will
zip into the region Friday with a chance of showers, followed by
renewed cold air advection to start next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Valley fog is forecast at KELM this morning with conditions
expected to fall near airport minimums between 07Z-09Z then
improve to VFR between 13Z-14Z. At KRME/KITH/KBGM, MVFR
conditions in fog are possible between 09Z-12Z but confidence
here is low. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast this TAF
period with SCT/BKN high clouds. Valley fog is likely again late
tonight at KELM between 09Z-12Z.

Light and variable winds through the period.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.

Monday night through Wednesday...Restrictions in showers and
isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday...Improving to VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...BJT/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...RRM

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion