315
FXUS61 KBGM 281758
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
158 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will start out dry but rain showers ahead of a warm front
will move in later this afternoon. Showers will continue
through the weekend and into early next week as multiple waves
and a cold front move through. Summer-like temperatures will be
possible this weekend and into early next week before cooling
back to seasonable conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
930 AM Update...

Some minor adjustments made to temperatures over the next few
hours and increased cloud cover over western portions of the
CWA. Did speed up the arrival of some slight chance PoPs for
showers this afternoon from the Finger Lakes down into portions
of NE PA, and this trend will continue to be monitored. Also
gave winds and gusts a little bit of a boost tomorrow, mainly
for areas south of the NYS Thruway and into NE PA, blending in
some CONSshort and the GFS as they looked a bit too low. The
rest of the forecast remains on track.

630 AM Update...

Temperatures were touched up for the next few hours to better
match the latest observations. Sky cover was also updated as
most of the region is under clear or mostly clear skies. There
are some high clouds moving in from the northwest however and
sky cover will increase later today as a warm front approaches
the region.

345 AM Update...

Today will start out dry but moisture ahead of an approaching warm
front will be enough to support scattered rain showers late this
afternoon and into the early evening. Temperatures will climb into
the 40s and 50s with valley locations across NEPA pushing 60. As the
front continues to lift northward, showers become a bit more
widespread this evening and into the overnight hours. The frontal
boundary is quick to surge northward before stalling out over north-
central NY. Showers will quickly end from south to north with most
locations drying out by sunrise on Saturday. However, with the front
becoming stationary, showers are expected to continue along and
north of the NYS Thruway corridor. Temperatures will be non-diurnal
and will vary greatly across the region as warmer air is advected in
behind the front. Temperatures will fall into the 40s and low 50s
early in the overnight hours before warming up. In N. Oneida, the
mercury will drop into the 30s before bouncing back into the 40s.

The front will remain over north-central NY all day Saturday but
drifts south slightly. As it drops south late in the day, so will
the area of showers. While the main band of showers will remain
north of NY`s Southern Tier, some isolated to scattered showers will
be possible throughout CNY. There will be weak instability during
the afternoon hours as modeled MLCAPE is only  around 250 J/kg. This
combined with weak shear of 25 to 30 kts may be enough to kick off
some isolated rumbles of thunder late in the day. Due to the strong
WAA, summer-like temperatures will be observed south of the front as
highs will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Those under the frontal
boundary will see temperatures only climb into the 50s. With such a
sharp gradient, any variation in the front`s location will lead to
significant changes in temperatures. Not only will conditions be
quite warm south of the front, but they will be quite breezy as
well. West-southwest winds will be sustained at 10 to 15 mph as
gusts peak over 25 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM Update...

The frontal boundary remains draped across our northern counties
leading into Saturday evening, and is expected to sag south to the
Southern Tier as the evening progresses and into the overnight
hours. The temperature gradient will be strong and tight, with low
to mid 40s north of the Southern Tier, low to mid 50s across the
Southern Tier counties, and mid to upper 50s across NEPA. This front
will hang out here into the early morning hours as the mid-level
ridge slides off the east coast and winds shift from mostly
parallel to the boundary to southerly. This will push the front
north, bring an influx of warm air back to the region. The
gradient will still be tight as the front moves north, with
quick temperature rises as the front passes. Temps will rise
into the 60s for most buy early Sunday afternoon. During this
time, rain showers will also develop along the front, with most
of the rain falling to the north as warm air in the mid-levels
overrides the front. The best chances for showers will be north
of the Southern Tier, but some guidance is showing some isolated
showers developing south of the front in the warm sector, so
PoPs cannot be ruled out into NEPA.

On Sunday a broad, deep trough will move from the central US into
the Great Lakes region. This puts our CWA in the warm sector of this
large system for a prolonged period. SW flow will pump, warm and
moist air into the region through the day, with temps rising into
the mid to upper 60s for most. Rain showers are also expected, but
guidance is still uncertain as to the coverage and timing of the
showers, with signals for both widespread morning showers with a
drier afternoon, or a drier morning with more widespread afternoon
showers. PoPs followed NBM here for Sunday and Sunday night as no
clear inferences could be made as to how the precip would play
out, with higher chances across NY. The center of the surface
low is expected to pass to our west and north Sunday night,
keeping us in southerly flow and very warm overnight
temperatures. Lows are only expected to fall into the mid to
upper 50s west of I-81, with upper 40s to low 50s east of I-81.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 AM Update...

Monday will continue to see warm southerly flow that will push
temperatures into the mid to upper 60s across the region. Low
70s will even be possible in the Wyoming Valley. The big
question for the Monday and Monday night forecast is the timing
of a cold front passage. As the aforementioned low moves to the
north and east of the area on Monday, it will drag a cold front
through the area from NW to SE, generating periods of moderate
to heavy rain as it passes. The GFS and Euro are in better
agreement over the past couple model runs, but the front passage
is still off by about 6 hrs, with the GFS faster and pushing the
front through in the afternoon, and the Euro pushing it through
in the evening. If trends continue, they are both moving toward
a late afternoon/early evening passage, but with the large
changes in timing over the past few model runs, confidence in
the frontal passage is low. Currently, there is a alight chance
for a thunderstorm or two over the Wyoming Valley area during
the afternoon hours. Model soundings are not really showing much
in the way of instability with pretty saturate profiles keeping
mid-level lapse rates low and thus, instability relegated to a
couple hundred j/kg for a few hours. With the high shear values
(50-60kts) ahead of the front, gusty showers cannot be ruled out
but confidence in any strong storms developing is low at this
time.

Temperatures fall rather fast behind the front, with lows in the
upper 20s to mid 30s expected Monday night into Tuesday morning.
850mb temps should also be cold enough to elicit a lake
response off Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes, with light
showers/flurries into Tuesday morning possible. High pressure
starts to build in late in the morning, bringing mostly sunny
skies and dry conditions for the rest of the day. This high
looks to be strong and should stick around into the mid week
timeframe. Another low is progged to develop in the central US
sometime midweek, which could impact our area late in the week,
bringing more rain and warmer temps.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected until 22Z-00Z as a warm front starts
to lift north across the area leading to scattered rain showers.
MVFR to fuel-alt conditions are expected at all terminals this
evening, although confidence is lowest for AVP so lower cigs
were covered by a TEMPO group at this time. As the front
continues north and stalls out over north-central NY later
tonight, showers are expected to taper off from ITH on south
with improving conditions for a time. ELM and AVP are expected
to become VFR while ITH and BGM reach high end MVFR, but a
period of VFR is not out of the question. RME and SYR are
expected to see IFR ceilings tonight into tomorrow with the
stalled boundary nearby. Showers could be heavy enough to lead
to IFR visby for a time as well.

Confidence is low across the CNY terminals tomorrow toward the
end of the TAF and the rest of tomorrow afternoon as there is
some uncertainty as to how far south the front will drift and
shower coverage. Southwesterly LLWS is expected at nearly all
terminals after 00Z tonight. Soundings at RME show borderline
LLWS for a few hours after 09-10Z so if confidence increases, it
may be added in the next update.


Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Monday...Scattered showers and
associated restrictions possible.

Tuesday...Lingering restrictions possible early at CNY terminals,
then becoming mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BTL/DK

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion