000
FXUS61 KBGM 181809
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
209 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer and more humid today with showers and thunderstorms
moving into the area late in the day and persisting overnight.
Saturday will also be unsettled as a frontal boundary remains
over the region. High pressure returns on Sunday with warm and
pleasant conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1030 am update...

Bumped up the temperatures a little today with the thicker cloud
cover staying to our west and thus more solar heating. PoPs were
also lowered as well with the MCS slowly dying and upstream obs
not showing much rain reaching the surface. Waiting for 12Z
models to do a more detailed update.

415 AM Update...

Ridging remains overhead early this morning, but it will push
eastward later today with warm SW return flow developing behind
it. Models continue to have a hard time sorting out the details
for late this afternoon and tonight. Expect ongoing convection
well to our west over the central Great Lakes to continue to
weaken this morning as they push into western NY. Could see some
light rain showers by this afternoon across the Finger Lakes
Region and along the NYS Thruway Corridor if this holds
together, as many of the CAMs are suggesting it does. However,
little to no instability will be in place. so the chance for
any thunderstorms with this first wave is low.

Later this evening, a warm front pushes NE out of the Ohio
Valley and into western NY. A strong low level jet around 50
knots will also punch NE into the Southern Tier after 0Z this
evening while a short wave also enters from the west. Elevated
instability will increase to near 1000 J/kg and scattered
thunderstorms or a convective line may develop across western
PA/NY and push eastward through the overnight hours. Can`t rule
out an isolated severe storm with 50+ knot low level jet punching
through, but it will be tough to have those winds realized at
the surface with a stable inversion in place below H850.

Convection should wind down early Saturday morning and there
may be a lull in the action until later in the day Saturday.
Then a cold front pushes through Saturday afternoon with another
round of showers and thunderstorms. Still a lot of uncertainty
on the severe storm potential on Saturday, and a lot will depend
on what convective debris is left over from overnight, as this
would limit heating/instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM Update...

Shower and thunderstorm activity wraps up into Saturday night
as a weak ridge builds in. Skies start to clear out, and
temperatures may turn a couple degrees cooler than the previous
night in some spots. Expect lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Sunday
should be largely dry, but southerly return flow as the ridge
starts to shift eastward will bring in warmer, more humid air.
This could touch off a few showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder, but this would be confined to the higher terrain with
no real forcing for ascent otherwise. Dry weather is expected
overnight, but a few showers will be possible by sunrise Monday
as a warm front starts to lift northward ahead of a low pressure
system that will be deepening over the upper Great Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 AM Update...
Active weather is expected for the beginning of the work week.
Chances for a few showers and some thunder will quickly kick off
into Monday morning with most of the area already in the warm sector
south of a weak warm front lifting through the region. Strengthening
southwesterly flow will continue to advect in more heat and humidity,
with soundings indicating up to 1000 to 1500 j/kg of CAPE over the
area. Better chances for thunderstorms return for the afternoon and
evening, and continue overnight through Tuesday with a deeper upper
trough dragging a cold front through. We may be able to tap into
some Gulf moisture, which would indicate a potential for some
heavier rain with the passing front Tuesday. Will note for now that
the GFS is slightly quicker than other models to drag this front
through, indicating that it may already be east of our area by the
early afternoon Tuesday. This would have implications for the
potential for any strong thunderstorms with the front potentially
out of the area by peak heating. Dry and cooler weather will return
Wednesday and Thursday as a ridge builds back in.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Remnants of an MCS is moving into our region from west to east
this afternoon. Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms fire
along the remnant trough this afternoon along the NY Thruway
with impacts to SYR and RME. Further south, dry air prevents the
re-development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

Overnight, a strengthening low level jet creates LLWS with the
highest confidence at ITH and AVP but more terminals could be
added with later updates. The LLJ helps spark off another round
of elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms that moves across
CNY and NE PA. Confidence was too low to include thunderstorms
in the TAFs but they may be added at 0Z once there is higher
confidence in the timing of the storms. A tempo was added to ELM
with fog possible if rain impacts Susquehanna valley near the
terminal.

Tomorrow the low clouds associated with the showers quickly lift
with VFR conditions at all terminals by 16Z.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon...Showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions, otherwise VFR.

Sunday...VFR conditions likely.

Monday...Chance for rain showers and thunderstorms, especially
in the afternoon, with associated restrictions.

Tuesday...Chance of rain showers and thunderstorms with
associated restrictions.

Wednesday...Mostly sunny under NW flow.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...HLC
LONG TERM...HLC
AVIATION...AJG

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion