FXUS61 KBGM 121406

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1006 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Drier air relative to the past few days will make for a more
pleasant day across central NY and NE PA into this afternoon. A
weak trough will move toward NY and PA late this afternoon and
evening with isolated to scattered thunderstorms that last into
the overnight. Monday and Monday Night will remain unsettled as
an upper level low drops southeast to northern NY. This will
brings the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms. As
this upper low departs Tuesday, lingering showers will persist
from the Catskills to north central NY. Wednesday will see
improving conditions as high pressure builds across the
northeast U.S with warm summery weather returning.


945 AM Update...
Just made a few minor tweaks to temps, POPs and winds for this
late morning update. Used a CAMs model blend for hourly POPs
for this afternoon which trended POPs a little later. Well
defined short wave will arrive late afternoon/early evening and
will be the main trigger for scattered showers and storms mainly
across south central NY and northeast PA. This afternoon
insolation will lead to modest instability up to 500 to 1000
J/kg but without a focusing mechanism and drier air aloft we see
parcels and cumulus growth entraining out so have limited POPs
until influence of short wave arrives later. Previous forecast
discussion below...

Previous Discussion...
The surface low that brought the rain last night will be
clearing the area early this morning. Low clouds and rain
showers across northern Oneida continue but look to clear by
late morning. Temperatures and dew points will be a few degrees
cooler then the past few days, with highs in in the upper 70s to
low 80s and dew points in the low 60s.

Recent rainfall will help with dew point recovery today and as
a result, some modest instability of around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE
develops. Locations that saw the most rainfall over the last
few days will have the best recoveries and thus the greatest
instability. A mid level shortwave moves in this afternoon,
eroding the cap and triggering showers and thunderstorms. The
greatest coverage looks to be over NE PA and across the NY

The 500 mb vort max associated with the shortwave swings
through central NY in the overnight hours, providing lift and
keeping the showers and thunderstorms going. Coverage will be
spotty and most locations will be staying dry.


430 AM Update...
The pattern remains unsettled, especially Monday.

Though there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Monday, things will be a bit complicated for the details. One
upper wave will begin the day over the area and then exit
towards midday; then a deeper one will dig in from the west late
afternoon-early evening. In between, during peak heating hours,
there will be a lot of dry air in the column yet at least some
instability. Thunder chances will be better east of Interstate
81, yet even there Convective Available Potential Energy will be
mainly less than 1000 J/kg. Overall convection potential and
coverage will be higher towards New England, where the first
wave will be better timed with afternoon heating as well as
having more moisture.

For Monday night, the deeper upper level trough will drop
across NY and northern PA with cooling at mid-levels; even
becoming a closed upper low into Tuesday. A small chance of
showers will accompany this feature, becoming mainly east of
I-81 on Tuesday as the low and its somewhat deeper moisture
shift into New England.

Temperatures for the period will actually be right around
climatology; highs of upper 70s-lower 80s and lows of upper
50s-lower 60s.


445 AM Update...
High pressure finally gives us a quiet midweek window, before
passing waves reintroduce daily chances of showers and

A high pressure ridge will translate across the region Tuesday
night through Wednesday night with benign weather and a
comfortable air mass. Lows of mid 50s-near 60 Tuesday night,
will be followed by highs in the 80s Wednesday, and lows of
mainly 60s Wednesday night.

For Thursday onward, we will get into the periphery of a broad belt
of westerlies running roughly along the US-Canada border
states. There is decent model agreement on a better-marked
embedded wave passing through Thursday, which along with warmer
temperatures/higher dewpoints and thus instability, will
probably lead to some showers and thunderstorms. However, after
Thursday there is uncertainty as to the degree to which the hot
summertime ridge over the Central US will edge into our region.
There is decent confidence that temperatures will be above
average, but the question is will passing waves be close enough
to initiate additional rounds of convection. For now, daily yet
somewhat low chances of showers and thunderstorms appear
warranted, with diurnally-focused timing simply due to
anticipated instability each afternoon. If the ridge becomes
dominant, that would inhibit convection more.


A few rain showers continue early this morning across Oneida county
affecting RME with some IFR conditions at times. Low stratus
wrapping around the low will burn off shortly after sunrise with all
locations getting VFR conditions. Instability develops this
afternoon with a shortwave moving in from the SW that will erode
the cap and allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop
later this afternoon. Coverage of these showers and
thunderstorms will be spotty and confidence is low as to where
there will be the best coverage.

The showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into the
overnight hours as a shortwave continues to provide lift. The
best coverage for the nocturnal showers and thunderstorms look
to have the best chance of affecting BGM and AVP. If ELM is able
to get any rain during the afternoon hours, fog and IFR
conditions will be possible tonight.


Monday through Tuesday night... Continued unsettled weather
with afternoon showers and thunderstorms leading to occasional

Tuesday night through Thursday...VFR other than potential
valley fog at KELM late night-early morning.





NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion

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