839
FXUS61 KBGM 221035
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
635 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a prolonged period of dry and warm
weather through Wednesday. A cold front will bring the next
chance of rain Wednesday night into Thursday, followed by
seasonably cooler weather for the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
620 AM Update...

Clear skies with some patchy fog across the valleys of the
Southern Tier, with temperatures remain in the mid 40s to low
50s. The forecast remains on track with minimal updates made
based on current trends and high res guidance.

245 AM Update...

Upper level ridging and associated surface high will continue to
dominate the weather pattern through Wednesday morning.

W flow tonight becomes SW in the morning, continuing to advect
an anomalously warm airmass into the region. Abundant sunshine
and mostly clear skies will allow temperatures today to climb
into the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will be very warm
for this time of year, only falling into the 50s for most.

Wednesday will continue to see SW flow and WAA into the
afternoon hours, but the dominant ridge will be east of the
region by Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the
low to mid 70s across the area. An approaching trough from the
west will bring brief return to active weather starting
Wednesday afternoon. An associated cold front will move into
western NY in the early afternoon, moving into our western
counties late in the afternoon and bringing scattered rain
showers from Oneida to Steuben county.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
340 AM Update

A few weak weather systems will impact us for this time frame, but
overall mainly just expecting some light rain and a return to
seasonable temperatures.

A cold frontal boundary will move quickly across the area Wednesday
evening into the overnight. This will bring a quick period of rain,
especially to Central NY and the northern tier of PA. Can`t rule out
an isolated, embedded t`storm or two as well as it pushes eastward.
QPF amounts will be generally light, between a few hundreths of an
inch up to perhaps a tenth or two-tenths of an inch. Winds turn
northwesterly and 850mb temperatures fall to around -2C by daybreak
Thursday. Drier mid level air will already be working into the area,
so expect just some lake effect clouds and perhaps an isolated
shower lingering into Thursday morning. Eventually, by midday or
afternoon skies will become mostly sunny as surface pressures rise.
We`ll see more seasonable temperatures, with lows in the upper 30s
to mid-40s and highs in the 50s by Thursday afternoon. NW winds will
be slightly breezy, between 8-15 mph with some gusts around 20 mph.

Thursday night into Friday morning feature surface high pressure and
ridging aloft over the forecast area. This will keep skies mainly
clear/sunny for this timeframe. Expect cold lows in the upper 20s to
mid-30s, then warming up into the upper 50s to low 60s Friday
afternoon. The next front is speeding up a bit in the latest 00z
guidance, with increasing afternoon clouds spreading in from the
west, and even a slight chance for light showers approaching sunset.

Some light rain moves through Friday night, but the front does not
have a lot of moisture to work with. Rainfall amounts from this weak
front are even lower; mainly under a tenth of an inch in the
forecast at this time. The clouds and breezy winds will keep
overnight lows up in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
345 AM Update

Upper level trough remains near or just north of the area for the
upcoming weekend. Temperatures aloft will be cooling, falling to
around -2C by Saturday evening, and perhaps as low as -5C on Sunday.
Once again, not a lot of moisture expected with this trough, as the
flow remains north-northwest over our CWA. There will be enough of a
lake temperature differential for favorable lake effect parameters;
especially later Saturday into Saturday night as a shortwave and
some enhance mid level moisture moves through north-central NY.

Overall, expect a mix of clouds and some sun on Saturday with the
lake effect shower chances north of the Southern Tier. These showers
linger into Saturday evening and the first part of the overnight.
Then a strong surface high pressure center moves in from the west
heading toward Sunday morning, which should act to end the lake effect
showers. Turning cooler, with highs on Saturday in the 50s to around
60 and overnight lows dipping down into the upper 20s to mid-30s.

For Sunday through Monday a strong 1032mb surface high looks to
slide over the area. Sunday features sunshine but below average
temperatures. Highs only reach the upper 40s to mid-50s; then a
cold night is in store with the coldest lows of the season
looking possible. Sunday night is forecast to have lows in the
20s to low 30s areawide. Warming up slowly on Monday in the
southerly return flow, with highs back in the mid-50s, which is
average for the end of October. Quiet, partly sunny and
seasonably mild weather continues into next Tuesday based on the
latest blended, ensemble guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected across all terminals today with
sunny skies and light winds. There will be some low level wind
shear of 30-35kts at SYR and RME tonight as a low level jet
strengthens over the region.


.Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night through Thursday...Occasional restrictions
possible with scattered rain showers, mainly at the Central NY
terminals.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Friday night through Saturday...Scattered rain showers may bring
occasional restrictions, mainly at the Central NY terminals.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion