000
FXUS61 KBGM 271408
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
908 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of light snow showers or flurries will continue this
morning before abating this afternoon. Another upper level
disturbance will bring another round of snow showers or
flurries Saturday morning. More unsettled weather and mixed
precipitation is expected on Sunday, with colder temperatures
to start next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
900 AM Update:

Lake effect snow showers are drifting east, with some flurries
still developing on the back side of these scattered showers.
PoPs were increased for the next hour for those areas that are
currently under the heavier snow showers. As the flow shifts
today, these snow showers will retreat northward, so little
change was needed to PoPs late this morning and afternoon. There
have been some breaks in the clouds with the sun peaking
through, but most of the region remains under mostly cloudy
skies. Some minor tweaks were made to sky cover for this morning
as these areas of clearing will likely fill back in. Observed
winds were a little lighter than forecast, so minor adjustments
were made to those as well.

342 AM Update:

Flurries are still scattered about the area, mainly in Central
NY, but also sneaking into the Hazleton area recently. More
widespread snow showers are over western NY and PA, apparently
associated with a shortwave trough moving across Lake Erie.
These snow showers will spread ENE into northern parts of our
CWA over the next few hours, with scattered flurries extending
further south into the Twin Tiers.

Accumulations will range from around 1 inch across the Finger
Lakes and across our northern counties, with barely a dusting
further south.

In the wake of the shortwave trough we`ll see some breaks of sun
this afternoon. However, another approaching disturbance will
approach the area tonight, with another round of light snow
showers and/or flurries expected through Saturday morning.
Precip will end by midday, with some partial sunshine expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM update...

Surface low pressure in Illinois will move northeast this period
with a track just north of the US/Canadian border. This will
bring snow and rain showers to our area mostly on Sunday.
Amounts will be light with the better forcing to our north. The
only place with significant snow will be northern Oneida County
with 1 to 3 inches of snow. The timing of the precipitation is
not good for snow being afternoon. Warmer air comes in at low
levels pushing surface temperatures into the upper 30s and lower
40s. Sunday morning lows start out warm from the mid 20s to the
lower 30s. Oneida County is a few degrees this period. On
Sunday south winds will be 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
southwest. Colder air comes in behind the front late Sunday
changing rain to snow but by then the moisture is gone.

A quick but weak lake response is likely but high pressure
builds in  late Sunday night to shut it down. Low temperatures
will range from around 30 in the Wyoming Valley to around 20
along the NYS thruway to teens in the Tug. Snowfall Sunday
evening will be less than an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 AM update...

Models trending colder with a storm track to our south. PA and
NY  will be under a broad upper level trough. The best chance
of snow is still Tuesday night to Wednesday but the ECMWF keeps
the storm south of the area. The GFS is still weak. This period
will be unsettled but with mostly light snow showers.

Monday another quick moving high passes through. It will start
as snow but mix with rain from the southern tier into NEPA in
the afternoon. Colder air will come in Monday night setting off
some lake response lasting into Tuesday. Another system goes
through Tuesday night to Wednesday followed by more lake effect
snow.

Temperatures overall during the long term period look to be on
a cooling trend with near to slightly above normal temperatures
expected on Monday (highs in the 30s to around 40), but below
normal temperatures Tuesday through Thursday (highs in the mid
20s to lower 30s Tuesday and Wednesday; upper teens to 20s for
Thursday).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lake-enhanced snow showers have increased across central NY and
far northeastern PA over the past hour in response to an upper
level shortwave moving in from the west. Activity should
diminish by around 13-14Z, and may pick up again later this
morning as another disturbance rolls through. Expect marginal
MVFR to VFR conditions outside of snow showers, and brief
IFR visbys as snow showers pass through. This will mainly affect
Central NY terminals, with just a few flurries possible at AVP.

Winds will shift to the SW later today ending the lake effect
snow and persistent flurries. Any remaining MVFR ceilings will
improve to VFR, most likely holding out the longest at ITH and
BGM.

Another approaching disturbance will bring lower ceilings back
into the picture during the pre-dawn hours Saturday.


Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR; some restrictions possible in the
morning as a weak disturbance rolls through with a few rain/snow
showers.


Sunday through Tuesday...Restrictions possible in rain and snow
showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...BTL/MPH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...BJT/TAC
AVIATION...BTL/MPH

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion