365
FXUS61 KBGM 221136
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
636 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Light lake effect snow showers will come to an end today,
however the very cold conditions will continue through tonight.
Another clipper system arrives Monday night into Tuesday with a chance
for more light snow. Temperatures will trend warmer through the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 AM Update:

Lingering light lake effect snow showers will continue this
morning with the cold northwest flow. Winds this morning have
been lighter than forecast and thus wind chill values have
mostly remained above criteria of the Cold Weather Advisory. For
now, will leave the advisory out, however, may need to cancel it
early if winds light after sunrise.

High pressure and ridging aloft will start building in this
afternoon and this will clear skies out for tonight. Fresh snow,
light winds and mostly clear skies will produce efficient
radiational cooling overnight into Monday morning. Therefore
continued to go several degrees below model guidance for
forecast lows. With the lack of wind tonight, there will not be
a need for a cold weather advisory, but it is possible that a
few localized cold spots approach criteria.

Temperatures on Monday will recover nicely by the afternoon,
with highs expected to be about 15 degrees warmer than our high
temperatures today. Monday should remain dry through the day,
however our next clipper system will be approaching the region
in the evening, but any snow should hold off until Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
400 AM Update...

A clipper system passes through Northern NY into New England
Monday night into Tuesday. A warm front associated with the
clipper lifts into the region early Monday night with isentropic
lift leading to precipitation spreading in. Most of the
precipitation will be from the Northern Tier of PA and northward
through CNY. Forecast soundings are below freezing through the
whole column so snow will be the precipitation type. QPF amounts
with the clipper system range from 0.10 to 0.40 with the higher
totals up in the Tug Hill as well as the Catskills where
terrain helps with orographic lift. South of the Northern Tier
of PA, forcing is weaker being farther from the passing low so
QPF amounts are less than 0.10. Forecast soundings do show some
weak lift through the dendritic growth zone so rations will
likely be higher than climatology of 12:1. While still a few
days out, it is looking like there will be areas that get up
over 4 inches with the clipper system though odds of 7 inches or
more of snow is low and limited to areas that do get the
orographic lift to boost snow totals.

Once the clipper is through and headed off the New England
Coast Tuesday night into Wednesday, ridging begins to build in
for Christmas. It will take a while for all the cold air in
place to scour out so most of Christmas will be below freezing.
Little snow melt if any is expected prior to Christmas so areas
that have snow on the ground will get a white Christmas this
year.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
400 AM Update...

The long term is looking much warmer than the beginning of the
week with troughing out west and ridging builds in the eastern
US. The deterministic models do have a few shortwaves that cut
under the ridge late in the week into next weekend that could
bring some chances of precipitation. Any precipitation that we
get late week will likely be in the form of rain with the west
to southwest flow aloft and high 500 mb heights above 560 dm.
Freezing rain is a potential given the time of the year and
there will be several strong regions of high pressure to the
north. If we can get some low level cold air undercut one of the
incoming shortwaves, then there could be brief period of
freezing rain with one of the incoming shortwaves.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Lake effect snow flurries will taper off this morning and expect
conditions to improve through the day at ITH, SYR and BGM and
all sites will become VFR by late afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Monday night through Tuesday...Occasional restrictions possible
in scattered snow showers.

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ009-
     036-037-045-046-057-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG/DK
AVIATION...MPK

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion