000
FXUS61 KBGM 071108
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
708 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area today, which will bring
scattered rain showers. Behind this cold front, much cooler
weather is expected to persist through the weekend. While the
weekend will be dry for most of the region, a few lake effect
rain showers will be possible along and north of the New York
Thruway Corridor.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 AM Update:

Rain showers associated with a passing shortwave continue to
move east of the region, with just a few lingering showers
across the Catskills. The dry break will be short-lived as a
cold front will move into the region from the west later this
morning into the afternoon. This will bring another batch of
scattered rain showers to the region, especially across Central
NY. Ahead of this front, some sunshine is expected, especially
across much of Northeast PA to the Catskills. By this afternoon,
a northwesterly flow will develop, allowing for lake effect rain
showers to develop across the Finger Lakes region.

High temperatures today will vary depending on location. Areas
west of I-81 will likely see highs mainly in the 50s with the
cold front already east of those areas by the time of peak
heating. Areas east of I-81 will generally see highs in the
upper 50s to upper 60s, with some 70 degree readings not out of
the question for the Poconos-Catskills.

Following the cold front passage, 850mb temperatures will fall
to around -5C as a northwest flow develops. This will allow for
continued lake effect rain showers and clouds across parts of
Central NY tonight. A few wet snowflakes may mix in across the
higher elevations of Central NY, although no accumulation is
expected. Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower 30s to
near 40. A few isolated locations across far northern Oneida
County may touch the freezing mark, but coverage and confidence
is not high enough for freeze headlines at this time. Frost
appears unlikely due to the cloud cover and still somewhat
breezy winds.

High pressure moves into the region on Saturday, which will
mostly bring an end to any lake effect showers and result in
mostly sunny skies. Still a slight chance for some lingering
light lake effect rain showers though across northern Oneida
County as the flow turns more westerly. With a chilly airmass
in place, high temperatures will only be in the upper 40s to mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 am update...

Saturday night into Sunday a southwest flow will keep most of
the lake effect showers north of our area. Northern Oneida may
get a few showers but that is all. Saturday night could be the
coldest night this week. Lows mostly mid and upper 30s. A
southwest wind at 5 to 10 mph could keep the frost from forming.
Sunday will be warmer than Saturday with high from the mid 50s
to lower 60s.

Late Sunday into Sunday night low level winds shift to northwest
bringing in colder air and a weak cold front. Some showers are
possible mostly in central NY that will last into Monday
morning. There will some synoptic forcing combined with lake
enhancement as 850mb temperatures fall to around 0C.

Sunday night low temperatures will be from the mid 30s to the
lower 40s. Frost is possible with light winds. Monday highs will
be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s again but a degree or two
warmer than Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
350 am update...

Overall, a rather quiet period of weather is expected during
this period with high pressure in control into Wednesday. The
models then have a strong cold front moving through the area
Thursday or Thursday night with rain. Moisture will be pulled
northeast into our area from the Gulf of Mexico. This is ahead
of a large upper level trough over the western Great Lakes.

With high pressure to our south over the middle Atlantic states
Monday to Wednesday there will be a slow warming trend. Highs
peak in the 60s Wednesday but this could continue into Thursday
with a slower frontal passage. Lows Monday night from the mid
30s to the lower 40s rise into the upper 40s and lower 50s
Wednesday night. Monday night could again have some patchy
frost.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As a cold front moves through the region, MVFR to Fuel Alternate
ceiling restrictions are expected later this morning into the
afternoon, followed by a return to VFR conditions for most
terminals. Scattered rain showers will accompany these ceiling
restrictions as well. Additional MVFR ceiling restrictions are
possible this evening/tonight at the Central NY terminals due
to lake effect clouds and rain showers. Patchy fog cannot be
ruled out at KELM late tonight/early Saturday morning, which may
bring occasional IFR visby restrictions.

Following the passage of the cold front, westerly winds will
pick up, becoming sustained at around 10 kts with gusts of 15
to 20 kts through this evening. Winds diminish a bit overnight.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...BJG

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion