000
FXUS61 KBGM 080202
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
902 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow will gradually come to an end by tonight with some
lingering lake effect flurries north of the Thruway. A warm up
develops from tomorrow into the weekend, followed by a strong
storm that will bring heavy rain and strong winds for later
Sunday and Sunday night. Rain then ends as a period of snow
early Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
900 PM Update...

Not much to change with this update. Temperatures were touched
up based on the latest observations. There was a report of
freezing drizzle in Oneida County, which was an hour earlier
than expected. Otherwise, the PoPs and ptypes still remain valid
through at least the late evening hours and were left untouched.

600 PM Update...

The main band of snow showers is exiting the region. A few
warmer areas are seeing a rain/snow mix. Lingering lake effect
precipitation will continue overnight behind the departing
shortwave. There was some guidance suggesting that it may last
longer than originally forecasted, so PoPs were extended later.
Anything after midnight looks to set up mainly over Oneida
County and would continue through early Monday morning. Some
additional light snow accumulations will be possible. Similar to
what was mentioned during the afternoon update, model soundings
show drier air through the DGZ late tonight which would then
result in some freezing drizzle.

210 PM Update...

Minor mid-level short wave will continue to exit the region
tonight with light snow lifting east of our area and
diminishing. We lose ice crystallization in the dendrite zone
on the KUCA Bufkit sounding this evening and have included a
mention of patchy freezing drizzle for a few hours in the
Western Mohawk Valley as this looks to be the area that will
hold onto moisture and marginal lift the longest. Elsewhere...
upper ridging will promote subsidence along with some dry
advection as seen in WV satellite imagery. Low clouds will be
stubborn to diminish until the 850 mb ridge passes late tonight
and stronger warming and diurnal effects kick in on Friday. Dry
and mild conditions will round out this part of the forecast
with high temps tomorrow surging into the 40s. Partial sunshine
is also expected to return.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM Update

This period starts off quiet, with mild and dry weather expected
on Saturday. High temperatures look to surge into the 50s under
partly sunny skies. A southerly breeze between 8 to 15 mph will
be responsible for transporting these warm temperatures
northward into our forecast area. This will be out ahead of a
developing, strong mid-latitude cyclone that will impact our
area late Saturday night through Monday. Much more on this
system below.

The main impacts from this strong system look to be heavy rain,
strong gusty winds, and a possible freeze up as precipitation
changes over to snow Sunday night into the day on Monday.
Confidence is increasing in higher QPF amounts with today`s
model guidance, and also the further east track of the
low...which will allow colder air to work into the area Sunday
night...changing the rain over to snow during the evening west
of I-81 and after midnight east of I-81...with the higher
elevations changing over first.

Rain develops over the Finger Lakes and Central Southern Tier
late Saturday night as southerly winds also increase between
15-25 mph...especially over the higher terrain. Rainfall amounts
will only be up to a quarter inch over that area, before daybreak
Sunday morning...with current guidance bringing the rain east to
around the I-81 corridor by daybreak. It remains warm overnight
with lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s excepted.

Central NY and Northeast PA remains in the warm, moist southerly
flow out ahead of the deepening low pressure system during the
day on Sunday. A large upper level trough moves into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley and begins to take on a slight negative
tilt. Model guidance continues to show a wavy, elongated area of
low pressure developing along a sharp cold frontal boundary...
currently this wave of low pressure is forecast to track near,
then just southeast of our forecast area by Sunday night. Again
this system has the potential to bring a multitude of hazards
and impacts to the region. Storm total precipitation amounts are
progged to range from 1.5 to 3.5 inches over the region...and
this could certainly cause some flooding issues...anything from
poor drainage flooding, ponding of water in low lying areas and
large rises on area streams and rivers. There is the potential
for some main stem and headwater river points to reach action
stage, minor flood stage or perhaps even higher. The exact
rainfall amounts and any flooding potential will become more
clear as we get closer in time to this event. The instability
looks too limited for any strong to severe thunderstorms with
minimal CAPE but enough to where some thunder is possible Sunday
afternoon and evening. Gusty convective showers are not out of
the question though.

The other concern will be gusty southerly winds, with peak gusts
of 30-40 mph over the higher elevations Sunday into Sunday
night...then winds turn west-northwest on Monday with similar
wind speeds expected. There is also fairly good model agreement
this far out in time for the rain to change over to wet snow
from west to east, and from hilltops to valleys starting late
Sunday evening over Steuben county, reaching the I-81 corridor
after midnight and finally changing over for the southern
Catskills and Wyoming Valley during the predawn hours Monday.
There definitely remains some uncertainty in these changeover
times as it will depend on the ultimate track of the low and
extent of the cold air. Current ensemble guidance, including the
NBM are showing 40-60%, with locally up to 80% (hilltops)
probabilities for > 3 inches of snow over Central NY in the
Sunday night to Monday timeframe...probabilities are are in the
15-30% range (50% hilltops) across NE PA for 3 inches or more of
heavy wet snowfall.

Temperatures remain well above average on Sunday, rising well
into the 50s as pwats also reach 1 to 1.25 inches and dewpoints
surge into the 50s. Temperatures are rather slow to cool Sunday
night, but do eventually back into the 30s and around or below
freezing in most locations before daybreak Monday. This, combined
with the potential for wet snow could certainly cause untreated
surfaces to becoming snow covered and slick.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
340 PM Update

This long term period starts off active, with lingering lake
enhanced/effect snow showers Monday into Monday night, along
with much colder temperatures and gusty northwest winds.

Behind the sharp cold front early Monday morning should be a
drop in temperatures to around or just below freezing.
Anafrontal precipitation is modeled across the region allowing
rain to change to a quick thump of moderate to heavy snow for a
good portion of central New York and NE PA early Monday morning.
The exact track of the surface lows generating the anafrontal
precipitation will determine how long and how much snow will
occur. For now, a few hours of snowfall with some light
accumulations do look possible as the stratiform snow quickly
transitions to lake effect snow showers by mid to late morning
on Monday. Temperatures should hover around or just above
freezing Monday afternoon with some lingering light lake effect
snow showers. While a flash freeze is unlikely given that
temperatures look to only drop to around freezing, untreated
surfaces could still gradually freeze up, becoming icy and
slippery through the day. Northwest winds between 10 to 20 mph
with gusts of 30-40 mph area expected in the strong cold air
advection and well mixed atmosphere during the day on Monday.

Lake effect snow showers continue on a west-northwest flow
Monday night as 850mb temperatures fall to around -12C. The lake
effect gradually diminished and lifts north heading into the
day on Tuesday. A zonal flow on Tuesday leads to partly sunny
skies and seasonable temperatures rebounding in the 30s to
around 40. The weather is looking rather quiet and seasonable
for the middle of next week. A weak cold front may tray to slide
north to south over the region...and this could spark off a few
snow showers across Central NY on Wednesday before high pressure
builds in again by next Thursday. Steady temperatures for
midweek with highs in the mid-30s to low 40s and overnight lows
in the 20s expected.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ceiling and visibility restrictions will continue through the
overnight hours with light snow and/or drizzle and freezing
drizzle at RME and SYR. Rapid improvement to VFR cigs above
is expected to occur on Friday as warmer and drier air advects
into the Northeast with high pressure.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday night...VFR.

Sunday...Becoming MVFR-IFR with rain developing in the
afternoon.

Sunday night...IFR or lower. Rain changing to snow. Gusty winds.

Monday...Restrictions likely with lingering snow showers and
gusty NW winds.

Tuesday...VFR-MVFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...BTL/JAB
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JAB/MPK

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion