000
FXUS61 KBGM 182315
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
715 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible across
the area on Wednesday. Another stronger low will bring more
showers and storms Thursday and Thursday night. A period of dry
weather settles in Friday into early Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

7 pm update...
Made only minor changes to PoP based on latest Radar, with
showers more scattered across Steuben County and very limited
shower activity elsewhere. After sunset, should see showers
diminish rather quickly, but with the very wet conditions, fog
could become rather thick in some locations overnight.


340 pm update...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused on the potential for
scattered showers and a few weak storms this afternoon and early
evening...the development of low clouds and fog tonight...and more
scattered showers and storms on Wednesday.

Weak upper wave and associated surface front will continue to track
to the east late this afternoon with a few lingering rain showers
passing through the Poconos and far srn Catskills. A post-frontal
air mass is currently moving into central NY with a few very weak
showers and storms popping up...which should continue through
sunset. The air mass will stabilize tonight and allow for the
development of low clouds and fog. Atmosphere will remain unsettled
tonight...and cannot rule out a stray light rain shower...so have
kept with a slight chance of rain through tonight.

The potential for rain increases during the late morning on
Wednesday as the air mass destabilizes. ML CAPE values around 1000
J/kg and weak to moderate deep layer shear will promote convective
initiation, but the combination of weak upper level
forcing...shallow low level lapse rates and the presence of an ill-
defined surface boundary should keep the storms in check for the
most part. The threat for showers and storms peaks during the
afternoon and early evening, and then starts to diminish after
sunset and through the overnight hours. The main concern with any
storms that do form will likely be hail and strong wind gusts. The
threat for heavy rain and flash flooding is on the lower end of the
scale given the presence of a relatively deep layer of dry air
aloft. Isolated rainfall amounts around a half inch are not out of
the question, but widespread amounts will likely be a quarter inch
or less.

Temperatures tonight will remain fairly mild with lows dropping into
the upper 50s and lower 60s. On Wednesday, temperatures will warm
into the lower to mid 70s in the Catskills and Poconos...and into
the mid 70s to lower 80s along and west of I-81. Another mild night
Wednesday night with lows bottoming out in the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 pm update...

Thursday into Thursday night will be the main issue for the
week. An upper level trough will move through with a surface low
and cold front tracking through PA. Models very similar the
last few days on the scenario. Heavy rain will be ahead of with
the surface low Thursday into Thursday evening. Pwats will be
1.5" to almost 2". The individual cells will be moving but the
entire duration of the rain will be long. Models are showing
stripes of heavy rain just about anywhere in the CWA. Widespread
average amounts of 1 inch is likely. Thunderstorms with heavy
rain could up the amounts to a few inches. Too far out to say
where the heaviest rain will be. The most prone area will be
where the flash flooding was today in NEPA.

The severe threat will be best in NEPA to the Catskills in the
afternoon to early evening. SPC has the area in a marginal
risk. With a saturated sounding, CAPE is tall and skinny and
mostly around 500. Bulk deep shear is around 35 kts.
Temperatures rise only a little into the low and mid 70s
Thursday. Clouds and rain will hinder the rise.

Rain will push east late Thursday night. Lows from the mid 50s
north to around 60 south.

Friday a few lingering showers will be around in the morning and
quickly push east. The afternoon will be mostly dry with skies
becoming mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 pm update...

Finally a dry period shows itself with a narrow north to south
area of surface heights. Upper level heights are building but
the ridge doesn`t get here until Sunday. Friday afternoon to
Sunday should be mainly dry but showers try to push in from the
west Sunday. It finally gets in the vicinity Sunday night
continuing into Tuesday. Models not agreeing on the timing or
the amounts.

Temperatures on the cool side of normal with highs getting into
the upper 70s starting Sunday. Lows start around 50 then rise to
around 60 with the showers Monday night.

previous discussion...
Looking at next week, more in the way of summerlike weather may
end being in the cards as a predominately +PNA becomes
negative. As a result, the mean trough with cooler air masses
likely shifts into the west and ridging develops over the
eastern United States. The latest 8-14 day outlook from the CPC
gives higher chances for above normal temperatures and near
normal precipitation. This could be a significant reversal from
the cool wet pattern of the last 6 weeks or so.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak trailing wave will trigger a few more showers and storms
around AVP this afternoon. Otherwise, a slightly unstable air
mass behind the front across central NY may allow a few
scattered light rain showers to develop this afternoon.
Conditions should become more stable later tonight through Wed
morning, with rain ending and low clouds and fog taking over.
Instability ramps back up late morning Wed into the afternoon
with more scattered showers and isolated storms possible again.

Weak flow will allow light and variable winds at all sites
throughout the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...Periods of occasional
lowered flight categories likely, with the possibility of
SHRA/TSRA. The greatest coverage will likely occur Thursday.

Friday and Saturday...VFR conditions likely as high pressure
builds in.

Sunday...Conditions will likely remain VFR most of the day, with
a few restrictions developing later in the day.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/MPK
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MWG/TAC
AVIATION...BJG/DGM

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion