000
FXUS61 KBGM 312341
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
741 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A persistent upper level disturbance will remain over the
region through Thursday bringing cool air, overcast skies, and
scattered showers. High pressure and drier air will move in
towards the end of the week, bringing mild conditions into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
740 pm update...
Only minor changes made to the forecast to account for the
latest position of the the rain showers out there, along with
current temperatures and cloud cover. Still may see some light
snow mix in with the rain across the higher terrain through the
overnight hours tonight. Bulk of the forecast remains unchanged.

Previous Discussion...
Little change in conditions is expected through the near term
as upper low slowly rotates through the Northeast U.S. Multiple
spokes of vorticity along with weak surface troughs to
occasionally concentrate areas of light precipitation or
drizzle, but overall the sensible weather will change little
through the period.

Still enough cold air aloft and when the diurnal cooling of the
boundary layer occurs, there is the chance of a bit of snow
mixed in with the rain but it will not result in much, perhaps a
very light accumulation at the highest elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
230 pm update...

The weather this period will be determined by the location of
the large upper level off the coast and waves dropping south
into the back side of the trough. A narrow ridge of high
pressure will be over far western NY and western PA. The upper
level low spins almost in place Thursday then moves southeast
Friday and Saturday. Moisture moves west into the eastern part
of our area Thursday night and remains into Friday morning. The
showers will be mostly east of I-81. Late Thursday night the
rain could mix with snow over the higher terrain. Maybe the
coldest locations get a dusting of snow on the grass. Low level
temperatures stay above freezing with lows in the mid and upper
30s. Thursday`s highs in the 40s warm a few degrees Friday to
upper 40s and lower 50s.

Friday night remains dry but that could change. The GFS and
ECMWF have a decent short wave dropping into eastern NY. Both
spit out a few hundredths of precipitation from the Tug Hill to
the Catskills. Given lows back in the mid and upper 30s, if
showers occur this could be a mix of rain and snow showers.

Given the tendency of the NBM grids to be low on the wind speeds
increased speeds especially on Thursday by mixing in superblend,
NAM, and GFS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 pm update...
With the upper level a little slower, the cold front is also
slower pushing showers in. Removed the slight chance pops late
Saturday night. The best chance for showers remains Sunday
afternoon with the frontal passage.

previous discussion...
High pressure will be in control for Friday and Saturday, with
dry weather as we enter into a warming trend. A weak wave
pulling a cold front through the area will bring in our next
chances for rain showers starting early Sunday, then additional
showers will be possible Monday with warm air advection ahead of
another approaching system.

As for temperatures, look for highs in the 50s Friday, with the
upper 50s and even lower 60s expected Saturday through Monday.
Overnight lows look to stay in the 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Slow-moving upper level low tracking to the e/se across the
Northeast this evening...and will likely remain in the same
relative position into Wed morning. Ceilings will continue to
generally vary between VFR and MVFR...with brief periods of IFR
ceilings possible especially at BGM and ITH between 06-12Z
Wednesday. Trend through the day Wed will be for a slow
improvement into the afternoon as the low moves further to the
east.

Winds will remain light from the n/nw around 5 to 10 kt through
most of the period.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Patches of MVFR ceilings or lower possible.

Thursday through Saturday...Generally VFR.

Sunday...Possible MVFR late in showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...BJT/DGM
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...HLC/TAC
AVIATION...BJT/DGM

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion