000
FXUS61 KBGM 191844
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
244 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Other than an isolated shower or thunderstorm in northeast PA
and the Catskills early this evening, tonight will become clear
as high pressure builds across the region. Tuesday looks to be
fair after a foggy start in the valleys of the Twin Tier region.
Another system will affect the region Tuesday night and
Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely by
Wednesday. A strong cold front will pass south of the region
Thursday with more scattered showers. A large Canadian high
pressure system will follow this front and lead to fair and
comfortably cool weather into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For the rest of this afternoon into the early evening...a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms still are possible given mixed
layer CAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg from northeast PA to the Catskills.
Upper level wave as per the water vapor imagery showed that
most of central NY and northeast PA was now behind the trough
axis and was in the subsident region. For grids have isolated
showers and thunderstorms much of northeast PA to the Catskills
with chance POPs in Pike County for late afternoon/early
evening. Not expecting anything severe given that the CAPEs were
not high enough coupled w/ minimal shear.

For the later evening and overnight high pressure builds across NY
and PA with mainly clear skies and light winds. Typical valley fog
will form under this synoptic set-up.

Then for Tuesday most of the day will be fair with the next wave
taking shape over the Ohio valley. The low-level flow will back to
southwest in the afternoon ahead of this wave and accelerate by
evening. This will lead to significant moisture and warm
advection and scattered showers and storms breaking out in the
evening and especially overnight. Have POPS increasing through
Tuesday night to likely POPS late.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Period will be rather unsettled as an upper long wave trough
digs into the western Great Lakes and short waves rotate through
the area. On Wednesday, short wave looks to tap southern
moisture and will likely develop widespread showers and
thunderstorms, some with heavy rain.

For Thursday, surface cold front sweeps through with additional
showers and storms. At this range, timing differences are
evident in the models and will determine the severity of the
potential storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure and a northerly flow build in behind the front on
Thursday night. This flow continues through the period under a
large upper trough. Surface front will stall south of the area
and continue to be the focus of showers and storms right into
Sunday. It`s possible that a stray shower could get into the
southern sections of the forecast area at times, but pops are
too low to be included for now. Otherwise the period will be dry
and somewhat cooler than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
We have VFR in broken cumulus for the afternoon. We don`t
have enough confidence to put thunder or restrictions in any
terminals. From the visible satellite imagery the cumulus were
clumping along the Lake Ontario breeze. Cumulus will be broken
most of the afternoon and then thin out and vanish by sunset.
For overnight skies will be mainly clear and with light winds we
expect more valley fog and have VLIFR FG at KELM and IFR BR at
KBGM with MVFR BR at KITH. Rest of terminals VFR.

Winds will be westerly 5 to 10 knots this afternoon and mainly
calm tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Afternoon...Small chance of a thunderstorm at KAVP
Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise VFR.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Restrictions possible
in showers and storms, especially Wednesday afternoon-evening.

Thursday through Saturday...VFR conditions likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion