641
FXUS61 KBGM 080012
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
812 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will linger east of
I-81 through early this evening. Smoke from Canadian wildfires
will lead to a hazy sky where clouds have broken, especially
over central NY. A brief dry period is expected tonight through
midday tomorrow, before unsettled weather returns later tomorrow
afternoon and continues through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
635 PM Update...

Observations at a few of the airports in the area continue to
show haze with visibilities of 5 to 6 miles. Haze may continue
to be a minor issue overnight, at least based on the HRRR model,
so haze was added to the forecast overnight. The rest of the
forecast was doing well and only needed minor touch ups to match
the latest observations.

330 PM Update...

A brief reprieve from wet weather will be with us tonight
through midday tomorrow as surface high pressure currently
centered off to the northwest pushes in and weak ridging builds
in aloft. Prior to this however, there will be a small chance
of an isolated shower or thunderstorm into early this evening
east of I-81 as an upper level shortwave passing by to our
north and east departs the area. Smoke from Canadian wildfires
pressing south across Ontario and Quebec will lead to some hazy
conditions the rest of the afternoon into early tomorrow as
well. Some patchy low clouds and fog will be possible overnight
and early tomorrow morning, especially in areas which have seen
locally heavy rainfall in the past 24 hours. Low temperatures
tonight will be mostly in the 50s.

Our next disturbance will start to spread moisture from
southwest to northeast across the CWA tomorrow afternoon leading
to the return of scattered showers into tomorrow night.
Instability looks limited at this time with upwards of 200-300
J/kg of MUCAPE and 20 to 30 knots of shear, so the chances for
thunder is expected to be low tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Highs tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows tomorrow
night are expected to be from the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
220 PM update...

Main concerns in the short term forecast are centered around
the potential for additional heavy rain from thunderstorms
mainly late Monday into early Tuesday morning, with some
lingering rain showers into the middle part of Tuesday.

Model guidance is in fairly good agreement concerning the
timing of a large area of low pressure over the northern Great
Lakes on Monday lifting to the east/northeast on Tuesday. There
is slightly more variance in amplitude of the low, which is
leading to some uncertainty with respect to how much warm,
humid and unstable air can be pulled north ahead of an
approaching cold front late Monday into Tuesday.

A few pre-frontal rain showers look to be possible (20-30%
chance) Monday morning well ahead of the cold front which
appears to sweep north/northeastward into western NY Monday
afternoon. The air mass will destabilize slightly during the
afternoon hours over central NY and eastern PA, but a lot of
this will depend on how much clearing can be realized before the
frontal passage. The instability on the latest NAM guidance is
hinting at 200-400 J/kg of ML CAPE, mostly over wrn NY, but the
latest GFS is indicating around 100 J/kg of ML CAPE over central
NY. Both are showing around 30-40 kt of deep layer shear and
weak mid level lapse rates. These conditions should lead to a
few strong to severe storms later Monday into Monday evening.

However, the main concern will be the threat of heavy rain from
these thunderstorms. A plume of PWs around 1.5 inches is
expected to stream north along and ahead of the cold front which
will provide the necessary forcing to wring out a fair amount
of moisture across the region. Surface dew points around 60
along with PWs around 1.5 are not extreme for this time of year,
but the combination of heavily saturated soils from recent
heavy and/or persistent rain will potentially lead to a fair
amount of runoff that may cause impactful flash flooding once
again. Around 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain is possible Mon and Mon
night, with isolated higher amounts in thunderstorms.

The upper low in the Great Lakes will make slow progress to the
east/northeast on Tuesday, which will allow the trailing cold
front to also move relatively slowly to the east and lead to
potentially another period of showers and storms Tue afternoon,
mainly over areas east of the I-81 corridor. The heaviest
rainfall on Tuesday could reach up to 1 inch in some
locations...with locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
220 PM update...

The period from Tue night through Friday should be much quieter
and drier with warming, more summer-like, temperatures. The
upper level low, situated over or near Hudson Bay, will continue
moving to the northeast. However, another wave embedded within
the large scale flow over northern Canada will break off and
drop south through Manitoba Tuesday night. As conditions dry out
over the Northeast US Tuesday night and Wed morning, rainfall
chances drop to less than 20 pct for most areas along with a
fair amount of clearing. This will lead to some valley fog and
temperatures dropping into the lower 50s.

A warming trend will start on Wed and continue into Friday with
highs topping out in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

As mentioned above, a short wave dropping south through central
Canada into the Great Lakes will rotate through the eastern GL
and the Northeast US Wed night into Thu. This feature should
have very limited deep moisture to work with, but could trigger
some afternoon showers and weak thunderstorms on Thu. A leftover
boundary may be strung out east to west over the region on
Friday and allow some convection to focus around it during the
afternoon heating period as well. There appears to be a lot of
variability in weekend weather solutions next week, but it does
appear to stay warm.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are expected through most of
the TAF period. Smoke from Canadian wildfires is pressing south
across Ontario and Quebec and this will lead to hazy conditions
for most of the CNY terminals into this evening. This haze will
lead to MVFR visby at times. Confidence remains low with
regards to any low clouds and fog late tonight into early
tomorrow morning, but model guidance does hint at it for ITH,
ELM and BGM, generally between 08-12Z. Drier air moving in
combined with elevated wildfire smoke may inhibit its
development. Dry conditions are expected tomorrow morning but
showers may approach ELM/BGM/ITH and AVP toward the end of the
period as the next system begins to move in.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon...Showers and thunderstorms spread from
southwest to northeast with occasional restrictions.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will likely result in occasional restrictions.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR with isolated showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Sunday night for NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DK/ES

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion