000
FXUS61 KBGM 190817
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
417 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow showers will continue on and off through
tonight as the pattern remains unsettled. A strong cold front
will cross on Wednesday and bring a chance for more widespread
snow showers to the region. Behind this front, lake effect snow
is expected once again through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM Update...

The winds shift back SWerly by early this afternoon as a ridge
builds into the region from the SW. Lake effect showers will
push northward, however, this ridge will not hang around for
long as a shortwave moves across the region from the Great Lakes
this evening and snow showers will redevelop, with the best
chances across the Finger Lakes to northern Oneida. Not
expecting much in the way of impacts with this round of snow as
the high March sun angle will make it very hard for anything to
stick. Snow showers will continue through the overnight hours
as the shortwave rotates through the region, with the best
chance of snow north of the Southern Tier. Another 1-3 inches of
snow is forecast across the eastern Finger Lakes into northern
Oneida, with the best chance for higher numbers across the
higher elevations. Temps will fall into the mid 20s to low 30s
overnight.

A potent short wave and associated surface cold front will push
into the region on Wednesday and bring more widespread snow
showers to the area. Definitely looking like precipitation on
Wednesday will be convective in nature with steep lapse rates
with upper trough over NY state. WOuldn`t be surprise to
possibly see a lightning strike or two with heavy snow/graupel
showers. Although high temperatures will reach the low 40s for a
large portion of the area, with the temperatures so cold aloft,
any precipitation will likely fall as snow/graupel. Once again,
with the warm surface temperatures, thinking that any snow
showers or even squalls will have little impact during the
daytime hours, but higher elevations may see a quick inch or two
of accumulation. Late in the day, much colder air will filter in
and some lake effect snow may start getting going before 0Z, but
much of the accumulations from these will occur overnight and
after this forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A strong upper level trough, nearly a closed low, will be centered
near Ottawa Wednesday evening. One embedded vort max will be pulling
east of the area, as another approaches from Lake Huron. Meanwhile,
the broader region will be in the left-front quad of a 125 knot jet
stream. The result will be scattered snow showers transitioning into
lake effect snow, with a primary band taking shape SE of Lake
Ontario. Cold advection, with 850 temps dropping from around -12 C
to -18 C, and a long multi-lake fetch will promote briefly heavy
snowfall rates in the main band, which looks to focus on
southern Onondaga, southern Cayuga, and northern Cortland
Counties late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Max
snowfall amounts may exceed 5 inches in places, with 2-4 inches
possibly stretching into southern Madison, northern Chenango,
and Otsego Counties as low level winds look to favor bands
stretching far inland. The band could waver a bit, which would
reduce max snowfall totals. Still, advisory-level snowfall is a
possibility.

Snow will taper off Thursday morning as drier air moves in aloft.
Colder temperatures will prevail through the day, however, with
highs struggling to get out of the 20s over a good chunk of CNY,
with 30s across the Twin Tiers and NEPA.

High pressure building in Thursday night will bring ideal conditions
for strong radiational cooling, and temperatures look to drop deep
into the 10s, perhaps single digits in snow covered areas (and far
northern Oneida County) by dawn Friday. 10s and 20s look common
further south into NEPA as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday looks to start off dry, but considerable uncertainty remains
in the picture for Friday afternoon and through Saturday as a
southern stream trough moves off the Carolinas, and a sharp northern
stream wave pushes into the eastern Great Lakes. The GFS continues
to phase the systems, with a poorly-organized coastal low developing
off the Jersey Shore Saturday, but it is preceded by warmer
air, with cooler temps filtering in as precipitation tapers off.
The ECMWF remains weaker, with no phasing, but this allows
cooler air to persist, and the end result is a clipper-like
system with light rain and snow moving through Friday night into
Saturday.

For now, stayed close to the NBM and previous forecast. Overall
pattern doesn`t look to favor freezing rain, so pulled any mention
of ZR introduced by the NBM.

Drier conditions look likely on Sunday and Monday, with a slight
warm-up early next week (highs 40s and 50s).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will continue through the early morning
hours and bring brief IFR restrictions to Central NY terminals,
but predominant conditions will be MVFR. Conditions will turn
VFR later this morning, however more MVFR to brief IFR restrictions
will be possible at all sites again late this afternoon as a
weak upper level disturbance pushes through.

Outlook...

Wednesday into Thursday...Another frontal system is expected to
bring restrictions with snow showers and possible squalls.

Thursday evening into Friday...Mainly VFR under weak high
pressure.

Friday night and Saturday...Chance of snow and rain with
another stronger low pressure system. Associated restrictions
possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...MPK

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion

Random Fact

Weather Terms

Freeze Warning - Widespread temperatures at or below 32°F during the growing season. A freeze may occur with or without frost. A hard freeze occurs with temperatures below 28°F. Growing season is based on the average date of first and last freeze at BGM. It begins April 17 and ends October 27.