000
FXUS61 KBGM 101747
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
147 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Other than isolated showers and storms today, dry conditions are
expected through most of the weekend. The next system moves in late
Sunday, bringing much needed rainfall and a rainy start to next
week. Temperatures trend warmer through the weekend but cool
down again next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1015 AM Update...

Fog has finally lifted and dispersed for most locations. Clouds
continue to stream NW to SE across Central NY and parts of NE PA
this morning. However sunshine was noted west of the Ithaca,
Towanda and Elmira area...with much thicker cloud cover
remaining further east. Near term guidance shows this cloud
cover gradually scattering out by early/mid afternoon. Also
made some minor tweaks to the PoPs/Wx grids this afternoon and
evening based on the latest CAMs...leaned heavier on the 3km NAM
nest, as it was handling the isolated showers and clouds pretty
well this morning. Expecting isolated to perhaps scattered
showers and isolated t`storms to develop after 2 PM this
afternoon and continue until around sunset...mainly across NE PA
and the Catskills. Otherwise it is looking partly to mostly
sunny and warm by mid to late afternoon areawide...with highs in
the 70s to lower 80s.

Also adding in some patchy fog after midnight tonight into early
Sunday morning; mainly in the river valleys and surrounding
locations.

600 AM Update...

Fog remains present and is the current forecast challenge. While
some locations were locked in all night, others were late to
join the party. Some sites are improving quicker than expected
while others continue to fall despite the sun beginning to rise.
Morning commuters will need to be aware of patchy fog and
reduced visibilities. As for the rest of the forecast, some
minor adjustments were made to the hourly temperatures to better
match the latest observations. Sky cover was also touched up.
Everything else was looking good and did not need to be updated.

315 AM Update...

Patchy fog early this morning will clear out after sunrise. A weak
shortwave will pass through later this morning and into the
afternoon, kicking off isolated showers today. Similar to yesterday,
instability will be weak though shear will be a little stronger with
values up to 30 kts. Because of this, isolated thunderstorms with
some non-severe, gusty winds will also be possible today. With short
range model guidance all being different, the HREF and previous
forecast were favored for PoPs.

Other than the isolated showers/storms today, conditions will be dry
as weak high pressure builds in and the upper-level low that has
been in control all week has finally moved out of the region. These
dry conditions continue through most of the day Sunday as an upper-
level ridge moves through. Ahead of the next system, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
afternoon across portions of north-central NY.

Temperatures trend warmer throughout the weekend thanks to shifts in
the flow. Today, temps will climb into the 70s as the nightly lows
will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Strong southerly flow will
advect warmer air into the region Sunday. As a result, temps will
range from the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM Update...

A change in the weather pattern will finally bring a widespread
rainfall to the region.

Upper level ridging will shift eastward into the Atlantic Sunday
night into Monday. Deep southerly to south-westerly flow will
bring an increase in moisture to the region, with PWATs climbing
over 1.5" by Monday morning. A surface low pressure system will
track northeast across the Great Lakes with triple point likely
tracking across western NY. Light to moderate rainfall starts
overspreading the region late Sunday night/early Monday morning
as isentropic lift overspreads Central NY. As surface low tracks
further north through the day on Monday, it will slowly drag a
trailing cold front across the region Monday afternoon and
evening. A period of heavier convective rain showers will be
possible as the front pushes through, but at this time it
appears minimal instability will exist with forecast soundings
only showing about 200 J/kg of CAPE. Also, models are
indicating a dry slot pushing in from the southwest Monday night
which should bring an end to the widespread rain showers.

The mostly cloudy and wet conditions on Monday will keep
temperatures cool, with highs only in the low 70s for most of
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
355 AM Update...

Low pressure becomes vertically stacked over the Great Lakes on
Tuesday and will slowing drift eastward into New York by mid
week. The upper level low will be the main weather player
through at least mid week and after a dry slot pushes through
on Tuesday, shower activity is expected to increase again late
Tuesday night and persist on and off through the period, with
the greatest chance coming Wednesday afternoon. The stacked low
slowly fills Wednesday, but upper level troughing likely
remains overhead through the end of the week with mostly
diurnally driven showers continuing again on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
145 PM Update

Just some sct to bkn mid and high level clouds over the region
this afternoon. Cloud bases are mainly 4k ft agl to 12k ft agl
at this time, and should slowly rise heading into the late
afternoon and evening. There is a slight chance for isolated
showers and even a thunderstorms; mainly across the Twin Tiers
and NE PA (ELM, BGM & AVP) between about 19z and 01z this
afternoon/evening. Coverage and confidence was too low at this
time to include a mention in any of the tafs...will continue to
monitor satellite and radar trends and add into the taf forecast
if necessary. Otherwise, the rest of this evening and much of
the overnight should feature VFR conditions. Did add in a tempo
(low to moderate confidence) for patchy MVFR fog at ELM toward
daybreak Sunday. Then, continued VFR conditions expected
areawide through the end of this taf period (18z Sunday) with
more sct to bkn high level clouds arriving.

west-northwest winds 5-15 kts this afternoon, become light and
variable after sunset. Winds then turn southeasterly on Sunday,
under 10 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon...Mainly VFR. Chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms especially SYR-RME-ITH. Brief restrictions
possible associated with these.

Sunday Night through Monday...Restrictions likely with numerous
showers, periods of rain, patchy fog and isolated thunderstorms
expected.

Monday night and Tuesday: Becoming mainly VFR; a chance for
patchy fog.

Tuesday night through Thursday: Possible restrictions with
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms around under an
upper level low pressure system.


&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL/MJM
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...BTL/MJM

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion