000
FXUS61 KBGM 201921
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
321 PM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A secondary push of much colder air will bring lake effect rain
and snow showers to much of our region late tonight into early
Sunday. Dry weather will return Sunday afternoon, but another
frontal system will affect NY and PA late Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
150 PM update...

A deep upper level trough will slide down from Canada Saturday
night. Strengthening northwest winds will drag much colder air
into NY and PA, increasing clouds and pulling down temperatures.

As the cold air crosses the relatively warm lake waters, lake
effect rain and snow showers will develop. This activity is
likely to extend beyond the NY/PA border into Northeast PA,
possibly as far south at the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton airport.

Minor snow accumulations are forecast. The big weather story on
Sunday will be the abnormally cold temperatures as readings
struggle through the 30s. It will feel several degrees colder
due to west-northwest winds gusting at 20 to 30 mph.

Quiet weather will return Sunday afternoon when the trough axis
rotates off the Atlantic Coast and the cold air advection
relaxes.

High pressure nudging into PA will bring mainly clear skies to
our forecast area Sunday night. It will become quite chilly with
lows from the middle-20s to the lower-30s.


11 AM update...

Temperatures are coming in much cooler than expected over cloudy
sections of interior New York. Breaks of sun are on their way as
the clearing line works into the I-81 corridor.

For this morning`s update, we increased near term POPs along the
Twin Tiers while decreasing values to the northwest. We also did
a new curve fit for temperatures this afternoon and lowered
projected maximums by a few degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

A warm frontal boundary will push west to east across the region
on Monday. Enough moisture may be lifted along this front to
provide a few light showers at times from the overrunning
moisture, mainly across central NY. Some mixture with snow is
possible around sunrise but temperatures will quickly warm well
above freezing given the switch in the winds to more southerly
and southwesterly. Highs should get close to 50 in many spots,
and with a fairly quick rise in the boundary layer temperatures
Temperatures may end up a touch warmer than current model
guidance. A few southwest wind gusts around 15 mph are possible
in the afternoon as well.

The actual low pressure system with the clipper and cold front
move into the region Monday night. Lift and some limited
moisture will be enough to create some scattered rain showers
moving in during the overnight from west to east. Low
temperatures will be kept on the warmer side due to clouds and
showers, around 40 or so.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Tuesday through Wednesday night:

The clipper system will continue to move through the area
Tuesday with more in the way of rain showers throughout most of
the day. Rain chances are highest across the NY Thruway area in
northern parts of the region and lowest across northeast PA
further away from the low pressure system. Rainfall amounts look
to stay rather light and under a quarter of an inch. Steep lapse
rates and some mid-level dry air will aid in transporting
stronger westerly wind gusts of around 15-20 mph to the surface
in the afternoon. Highs will once again get close to 50 ahead
of the clipper system.

A mid-level trough then sets up later Tuesday through Wednesday
night with several mid-level disturbances moving through the
region. These disturbances along with northwest flow off the
Great Lakes will keep the chance for some rain showers in the
forecast. The stronger disturbances look to move through Tuesday
evening and Wednesday afternoon. However, the 10/20 12Z ECMWF
brought a third disturbance through late Wednesday night.
Temperatures Tuesday night will be in the 30`s to around 40 for
lows with highs in the 40`s on Wednesday.

Colder air will continue to advect in Wednesday as well and
while temperatures look only cool enough Wednesday morning for
a mix of rain and snow in a few spots. However, colder
temperatures Wednesday night around 30 may result in more in the
way of snow showers if precipitation lingers. Wind gusts similar
to Tuesday afternoon are possible Wednesday afternoon as well.

Thursday through Saturday :

High pressure builds eastward into the region while low
pressure slowly organizes along the gulf coast. There is quite a
bit of difference with the model and ensemble solutions for
this feature. However, the vast majority of them still keep the
region dry through Saturday with high pressure in control. Lows
will be near 30 with highs around 50 Friday and Saturday. Given
the warm boundary layer by Saturday, Ensemble guidance may be a
bit cool with high temperatures these days. The reverse may be
true on Thursday with a fairly stout of cold air will come into
the region potentially keeping temperatures all day Thursday in
the 30`s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings will be over our NY terminals
through this afternoon as rain showers move across the region.
Ceilings are expected to lower tonight into mainly MVFR
territory as a secondary cold front enters Northern NY.

Lake effect rain and snow showers are forecast early Sunday. IFR
conditions are possible in snow showers, especially near KITH
and KBGM.

Sunday will be windy with gusts from the west at 20 to 25
knots.


Outlook...

Sunday...Probable morning restrictions in lower clouds and snow
showers, should gradually improve by afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday...Mostly VFR.

Wednesday...Restrictions possible in rain and snow showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...DJP

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion

Random Fact

Cloud Base

The cloud base is the distance from the sea level to the base of the clouds. It is estimated using the current temperature and humidity to indicate an altitude where the air could be cold enough for clouds to form. There may or may not be clouds at that altitude (or at any altitude)