163
FXUS61 KBGM 220846
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
346 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Very cold arctic air mass will remain over the region today.
Widespread below zero temperatures are occurring this morning.
Temperatures gradually moderate some tonight, but still a few
locations are likely to dip near or slightly below zero. There will
finally be a return to more seasonable temperatures Thursday,Friday
and into the weekend. Very little precipitation is expected aside
from scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM Update

Quiet and very cold weather continues today. Cold weather advisory
remains in effect areawide until noon today; early morning
temperatures will range from +5F in Syracuse to as low as 20
below zero in the coldest sheltered valleys of CNY and NE PA.
Winds are rather light, under 7 MPH early this morning, but the
light breezy can still bring wind chills down between 15 to 25
below zero at times. There will be a few lake effect snow
showers and flurries off of Lake Ontario into west-central
Oneida county early this morning, otherwise expect mostly sunny
skies through early afternoon. By late afternoon model guidance
is showing a mid and high level cloud layer racing into the
area, causing filtered sunshine and eventually more overcast
conditions toward sunset. Temperatures do not recover much this
afternoon; only between 8 to 15 degrees for most locations.

With clouds this evening and a gradually increasing south wind at 4-
12 mph overnight it will not be as cold tonight. Temperatures will
still drop between 0 and +10F for lows over the area, especially if
we see intermittent clearing skies. At this time minimum wind chills
are not anticipated to reach Cold Weather Advisory criteria; but it
could be close (0 to 10 below, isolated to 14 below) and this is
something to keep close tabs on for future forecast updates.

Morning clouds giveway to partly sunny skies on Thursday. 850mb
temperatures moderate to around -11C, which should allow for daytime
highs to reach the upper 10s to mid-20s across the area. No
precipitation is expected, and those daytime highs will still
be about 5 degrees below average for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
340 AM Update...

An upper level shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes
will approach the area from the west later Thursday night. As a
result, winds are expected to shift out of the northwest and
lake effect snow showers north of the area during the evening
drift south into Oneida County and toward the NYS Thruway
corridor before daybreak Friday morning. Lake effect snow
showers off of Lake Ontario are expected to remain around the
Thruway corridor during the day Friday and possibly extend into
the Catskills, while snow showers off of Lake Erie could extend
far enough east to reach portions of the Southern Tier. PoPs
were nearly non- existent from the NBM Friday, so they were
increased in the areas mentioned above with the highest PoPs
over portions of Onondaga, Madison and western Oneida Counties.
Lows Thursday night will be mainly in the single digits and low
teens with mid teens around the northern Finger Lakes to the
Syracuse Metro. Friday`s highs will be in the low to mid 20s.

As the shortwave trough moves off to the east Friday night,
winds will start to shift back out of the WSW and the lake
effect snow showers lift back to the north by early Saturday.
Snowfall totals Thursday night through Friday night look to be
a general 1 to 3 inches across Onondaga, Madison and Oneida
Counties, but some locally higher amounts may be possible if a
more robust snow band with a period of steadier snow forms
Friday into Friday night.

Saturday is expected to be a largely dry day out ahead of an
approaching weak clipper system moving in from the northwest
Saturday night. Highs Saturday are expected to be in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
340 AM Update...

The weak clipper system mentioned above will lead to a slight
chance of snow showers Saturday night across CNY before
expanding farther south and east on Sunday into the Twin Tiers
and southern Catskills. Sunday is expected to be a milder day
relatively speaking with highs in the upper 20s to the mid 30s.
Beyond Sunday, there continues to be differences among the
operational models with regards to Monday and Tuesday and the
track and intensity of a couple of disturbances. Ensembles
support a disturbance passing by near or south of the area on
Monday and then another feature and surface cold front moving in
from the northwest on Tuesday with the chance of some snow
showers. Continued to follow the NBM for now early next week
with PoPs generally 20-40%.

High temperatures look seasonable early next week in the mid
20s to low 30s and overnight lows in the teens and low 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1245 AM Update

High pressure, light winds and VFR conditions expected through
the period at all terminals. Lake effect snow showers will stay
north of the region, but a few isolated showers/flurries may
move into the RME area between 08Z and 13Z; for now did not
include any restrictions, but may need to amend if any steadier
light snow can develop here.

The rest of today will be VFR areawide, with mainly clear skies
in the morning and early afternoon. By late afternoon and
evening bkn to ovc mid and high level clouds will quickly
overspread the area, with cloud bases likely between 070 and
120 feet agl.

Winds are light, under 10 kts through the period. They start off
westerly, then turn southwest by morning and eventually turn
southerly by afternoon and evening.


Outlook...

Wednesday evening through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday through Sunday...A few snow showers may result in brief
restrictions at KSYR or KRME, but otherwise mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK/MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MJM

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion