625
FXUS61 KBGM 041946
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
246 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lake effect snow chances were included across portions of CNY
with northwest flow kicking off light snow showers off Lake
Ontario and the Finger Lakes. Temperatures were reduced slightly
for Saturday and Sunday and winds were increased for Friday
night into Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light lake effect snow continues across the northern Finger
Lakes into the Wyoming Valley and south into Thursday morning.

2) A clipper system moving in on Friday will bring widespread
light snow. A very cold arctic blast will follow in the wake of
this system, with extremely cold wind chills Friday night into
Sunday


3) Possible return to more normal temperatures by early to
midweek, but confidence remains low.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

NW flow continues this afternoon, advecting -13C 850mb temps
over Lake Ontario. Some steady lake effect snow showers are
occurring across northern Onondaga and Oneida county. Some dry
air filtering in later this afternoon could reduce some of the
snowfall footprint, but should pick back up this evening as a
weak shortwave propagates through the area with some more
moisture. Lake effect snow should spread farther south this
evening and overnight with the NW wind pattern keeping the
eastern side of Lake Ontario open to areas along the eastern
Finger Lakes and to the east. These snow showers should last
into Thursday morning when a ridge building in from the WSW will
end the snow chances by Thursday afternoon at the latest. Given
the cold air and low moisture, snow should be light and fluffy,
with up to an inch possible over the eastern Finger Lakes, south
to Broome and north to Oneida. 1-2 inches will be possible over
northern Onondaga and Oneida counties where more of the lake
snow is expected to be focused.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

A clipper system moving into the Great Lakes will bring snow on
Friday into Saturday, with another blast of very cold, arctic
air spilling into the area behind if for the weekend.

A broad upper level trough over the area Friday will have an
amplified shortwave riding the jet stream on the western side of
the trough axis. It will be positioned near the left exit region
of the jet streak, enhancing lift and focusing most of the
impactful snowfall associated with this system over western PA
and WV on Friday afternoon and evening. Over our area, the
trough will supply enough lift to kick off snow showers, but
they are expected to be light. Snow from this system should fall
from Fri afternoon into Saturday morning, with 1-2 inches
expected.

Behind this clipper system is a brutally cold airmass that will
slam into the region. Pressure differences between the departing
clipper and the high building in will generate strong NW winds
of 15-25mph with gusts up to 40mph possible starting Friday
night into early Sunday morning. With an airmass that will
struggle to get above 0F on Saturday, wind chills will be
in the -15F to -25F range from early Saturday morning into
Sunday morning. The question is how much will the frozen Lake
Huron and Georgian Bay and very cold waters of Lake Ontario
modify the airmass. Usually, we miss out on super cold temps
because we have the Great Lakes to act as a heater and warm up
the air as it passes over them. With a lot of ice cover, snow
pack and extended cold weather, this modification is not
expected to be nearly as beneficial. Current temperatures have
NBM 25th percentile blended in to try and capture this. NBM also
does not handle these wind setups the greatest so we blended in
NBM 90th percentile to get a better picture of expected wind
speeds. With temps this cold, just a few mph stronger wind speed
has a big effect on wind chills. No headlines for the cold or
wind have been issued as of now, but we do anticipate the need
for them this weekend.

The arctic air remains Sunday, with winds slightly lower during
the overnight hours but temps falling to 0F to -15F, so wind
chills will still be in the -15F to -25F range. Widespread negative
double digit wind chills exit the region by the late afternoon,
but negative single digit wind chills will stick around into
Monday.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

Model guidance signaling a warm up into midweek has been
slightly muted today, with the expected amplified ridge
transiting the US now flattening out after it gets past the
Mississippi River. Ensemble guidance shows temps below 20F
sticking around until Wed. From Wed into the end of the week,
temps climbing back towards near normal (about 30F) shows
promise, but chances are low for getting above freezing.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lake effect snow continues at around SYR and at RME with MVFR to
IFR vis at times, mainly at RME. VFR conditions are everywhere
else through the afternoon but lake induced clouds lead to MVFR
cigs at CNY terminals tonight. Snow is possible under the cigs
but confidence is low outside of BGM where a prob30 has been
added. AVP will be mostly VFR outside of some MVFR cigs that
move in around 6Z.

The MVFR cigs will be slow to scatter out tomorrow but terminals
should start to see VFR conditons by 18Z.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon through Thursday night...Lake effect snow
and cigs may persist at SYR and RME but trends will be towards
VFR everywhere by Friday morning.

Friday through Friday night...Restrictions likely with
widespread snow showers, along with potential snow squalls
and/or blowing snow late.

Saturday into Sunday...Cold and breezy, with occasional
restrictions at ITH, BGM, SYR, and RME from lake effect snow
showers. Mainly VFR at ELM and AVP.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...AJG/BJG

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion