000
FXUS61 KBGM 091024
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
624 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BRIEF
CLEARING LATER FRIDAY, AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIC THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. THEREFORE THE CURRENT LAKE
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, WITH A LITTLE MORE
COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN .03 INCHES. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE 60-70 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE NY/PA BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS ALONG THE FAR EASTERN
US/CANADIAN BORDER. SO WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWER PATTERN THROUGH THIS EVENING. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY EARLY FRIDAY, WITH SOME DRYING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE, BUT
PROBABLY WON`T END IT ENTIRELY UNTIL MIDDAY.

FAST MOVING PATTERN SHIFT IS PROGGED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
INTO THE 70S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. PREFER A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS AT
THIS MOMENT TO TIME THE PRECIPITATION ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MAIN RAIN AREA WITH NEXT APPCHG SYSTEM
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FROPA OCCURS SUN NGT WITH WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE KEEPING CHC PCPN IN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z MONDAY.
MODELS BRING SECONDARY TROF THROUGH IN THE TUE TIMEFRAME WITH 00Z
EURO QUICKER THAN GFS AND 00Z GEM NOT AS AMPLIFIED OR BULLISH ON
THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN PCPN ON MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS SOMETIME TUE.

UL TROF EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PD WITH
CONTD WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR LGT PCPN THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DRY AIR STILL PROGGED TO BUILD IN VRY LATE IN
THE EXTNDD.

TEMPS STILL BEING ADVERTISED NR NORMAL VALUES...EVEN BHND CDFNT
EARLY ON. HV LOWERED TEMPS A TAD FM PRIOR VALUES DUE TO ADVERTISED
CAA. LATEST EURO BRINGS 0C H8 TEMPS TO UPSTATE NY LATE IN THE PD.
LATEST MEX/GMOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...
THEREFORE HV GONE WITH BLEND OF PREVIOUS VALUES/COOLER GMOS
NUMBERS FOR THE TIME BEING. MAY SEE BLO NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN BY THE
END OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS FORECAST AT MOST NY TERMINALS TODAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO WRAP IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CIGS
WILL RANGE FROM 1500-2500FT EARLY THEN RISE TO NEAR 2500FT AT
RME/SYR/ITH/BGM AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT
ELM BY THIS TIME AS MOIST OF THE LOWER MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED
EAST OF THERE. A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER FAR
NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED ON VSBYS.

LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL TRAP MOISTURE AFTER SUNSET WITH LOW MVFR
AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT NY TERMINALS AGAIN. AS OF NOW
HAVE BROUGHT ITH/BGM DOWN TO IFR CIGS DUE TO HIGHER ELEVATION
TERMINALS.

AT AVP...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.

WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS
THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

LATE THUR NGT AND FRI...PRIMARILY VFR. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM
LOWER CLOUDS/PASSING SHOWERS IN NW FLOW WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
FAR NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF ITH/SYR/RME. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ALL
TERMINALS LATE FRI AFTERNOON.

FRI NGT THROUGH SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT AND SUN...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA.

MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN

NWS bgm Office Area Forecast Discussion