000
FXUS61 KBGM 061340
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
940 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND IN THE 80S TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 940 AM...CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WERE STREAKING
EAST FROM THE GTLKS THIS MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE NYPENN
BORDER. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TIMING JUST A BIT TO MAKE THINGS
SOMEWHAT MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF RAIN LIKELY WILL NOT SURVIVE THE DRIER AIR HERE...BUT
HAVE INCLUDED VERY LOW POPS WITH CHC SPRINKLES MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF ELMIRA AND BINGHAMTON AS SOME DROPS COULD REACH THE
GROUND FROM THE MID LVL CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED WELL IN THE
SUN THIS MORNING...SO FOR NOW HAVE HELD GROUND ON MAX TEMPS AS
CLOUDS COULD STILL THIN A BIT ESPLY OVER NEPA AND SRN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

LATE TONIGHT DRIER AIR COMES IN WITH DEEP SE FLOW...AND SFC HIGH
OFF THE LONG ISLAND COAST. TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AS 850 TEMPS AROUND 16C IN THE
AFTN. STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE RECORD DAILY HIGHS.

TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS AND EURO. THE SFC COLD FRONT SLOWS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO IT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE FAR SE UNTIL LATE
WED. WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT IN CANADA WITH THE STACKED LOW
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN NY AND PROBABLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH IN NE PA. AS WITH THE LAST FRONT THIS ONE WITH A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AS MORE
SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AGAIN MOST OF THE
SHOWERS WILL BE IN UPSTATE NY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WED FALL TO NEAR
NORMAL WED NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS BEHIND FROPA WILL EXIST ON THUR BEFORE HIPRES
BUILDS IN. NEXT SYSTEM WL BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWERS IN SAT AS A
LOPRES SYSTEM WINDS UP ACRS CANADA. SOME DISCREPANCY IN EVOLN OF
SYSTEM OVR THE WEEKEND WITH GFS MUCH QUICKER AND FURTHER SOUTH
WITH CENTER THAN 00Z EURO. HV SIDED WITH GMOS/EURO BLEND...SIMILAR
TO HPC GUIDANCE. TEMPS COOL DOWN FOLLOWING CDFNT ON THURSDAY THAN
MODERATE DRG THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KELM FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO IN FOG. REMAINDER OF TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH
A FEW PASSING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT NY TERMINALS AROUND 6-8KFT THROUGH
THE DAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SCT-BKN MID
CLOUDS EXPECTED.

WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MID-MORNING. SOME GUSTS TO
NEAR 18KTS POSSIBLE AS MIXING COMMENCES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
LIGHTEN SLIGHTLY AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VFR.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
PASSING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT.

THU AND FRI...PRIMARILY VFR. ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM LOWER
CLOUDS/PASSING SHOWERS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT OUR NY STATE
TERMINALS ON THU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NOW THAT METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER IS IN THE BOOKS...IE
JUNE...JULY...AUGUST...WE CAN TAKE A LOOK BACK AT HOW HOT IT WAS
HISTORICALLY. FOR ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES WE WERE PRETTY MUCH IN
THE TOP 10 WITH BINGHAMTON, AVOCA, AND SYRACUSE COMING IN 6TH,
7TH, AND 11TH WARMEST ON RECORD RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER, WHEN YOU
COMBINE THIS WITH A VERY WARM SPRING, THE RECORDS ARE MORE
HISTORIC. FOR THE SPRING/SUMMER PERIOD...AS DEFINED BY MARCH 1ST-
AUGUST 31ST...BINGHAMTON AND SYRACUSE HAD THE WARMEST PERIOD EVER
WITH AVOCA COMING IN WITH A TIE FOR FIRST. MUCH MORE INFORMATION
CAN BE FOUND BY VIEWING PNSBGM. YOU CAN FIND THIS PRODUCT AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM. ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE UNDER FORECASTS CLICK ON
TEXT AND CHOOSE THE PRODUCT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT AND CLICK
ON THE BINGHAMTON AREA. SEPTEMBER LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWING THE TREND
WITH ANOTHER WARMER THAN NORMAL MONTH.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
CLIMATE...

NWS bgm Office Area Forecast Discussion