000
FXUS61 KBGM 021911
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
311 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
FORTUNATELY...HURRICANE EARL WILL FOLLOW AN OFFSHORE TRACK THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...SPARING OUR REGION ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY AND DURING
THE EVENING. OVER THE WEEKEND...BRISK AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 3 PM... ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO POP UP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA IN WESTERN
NY...EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE COUNTIES. WE THINK THIS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND SOME WEAK FORCING DUE TO A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL
WAVE. THUS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
OUR NORTHERN FINGER LAKES/SOUTHERN TUG HILL/MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES
THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OTHERWISE.

LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO VALLEY FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN...MUCH LIKE
LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 310 PM... IN THE BIG PICTURE...EARL IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD...AS IT GETS
CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES...AND ULTIMATELY TRANSITIONS EXTRA-
TROPICAL BY THIS WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME...A FAIRLY SHARP COLD
FRONT SHOULD SWING THROUGH CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/FRI EVENING...ONCE EARL`S CIRCULATION PASSES OUR
LATITUDE...AND THE DEEPER-LAYER FLOW TAKES ON A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT.

WE`RE STILL ANTICIPATING THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LIMITED IN OUR FORECAST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT DEVELOPING ON THE PERIPHERY OF EARL`S
INFLUENCE...AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FAIRLY WEAK. CHANCE
POPS/SCATTERED VERBIAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED THROUGH 00Z SAT.
AS FAR AS ANY PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENT (PRE) DEVELOPMENT GOES IN
ADVANCE OF EARL...WE`RE STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. ANY PRE CONNECTED WITH EARL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...IF ONE DEVELOPS AT ALL.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR NY/PA THIS PERIOD WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE WEEKEND...AS FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS
SET IN. MAX TEMPS SAT SHOULD BE SOME 25 DEG F LOWER THAN THEY`VE
BEEN DURING THE PAST WEEK (HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S).
PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 5C FROM ABOUT 12Z SAT-12Z SUN...SHOULD
LEAD TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE THEIR GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES..BUT EVEN THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN DURING THE DAY SUN...WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY AFTERNOON.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EARL AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE
ON SAT...ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM
AGL...SHOULD LEAD TO WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 40 MPH. THESE WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE SAT EVENING...AFTER DARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE TROUGH TO THE NORTH
OVER CANADA AND THE CWA SITTING IN THE BASE OF THE THE TROUGH.
THEY ALSO INDICATE A SFC LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH. BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, A WARM FRONT WILL FORM JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH ANY LIFT WILL OCCUR OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND STAY OUT
OF THE REGION. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS, THEY WILL SLOWLY WARM FOR THE WEEK FROM THE MID 70S ON
MONDAY TO THE LOW 80S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE A
REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT, WITH SOME TAF SITES DROPPING SOME VSBYS DUE
TO HAZE AND LIGHT FOG. KELM IS THE EXCEPTION, AS USUAL. IT WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME DENSE FOG FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
TOMORROW MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS LATE IN
THE DAY AND IN THE EVENING...FROM SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

SAT AND SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHRA...ESPECIALLY SAT.

MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UPDATED AT 140 AM...
MANY OF THE RECORDS BELOW WERE SET DURING A SIMILAR LATE AUGUST
AND EARLY SEPTEMBER WEATHER PATTERN BACK IN 1953 WHERE A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SET
THE STAGE FOR HOT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHOULD FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORDS AS WE DID THE
LAST TWO DAYS.

BINGHAMTON PERIOD OF RECORD 1951-2010
SYRACUSE AREA PERIOD OF RECORD 1902-2010
AVOCA AREA PERIOD OF RECORD 1901-2010

WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 1ST

BINGHAMTON...92 (1953).  ACTUAL HIGH 87
SYRACUSE...94 (1953).  ACTUAL HIGH 91
AVOCA...97 (1932).   ACTUAL HIGH 91

THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 2ND

BINGHAMTON...96 (1953).
SYRACUSE...96 (1953).
AVOCA...99 (1953).

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...SLI
AVIATION...SLI
CLIMATE...

NWS bgm Office Area Forecast Discussion