000
FXUS61 KBGM 190221
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1021 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow showers continue across the region today, with
steadier lake effect snow moving into northern counties tonight.
Lake effect snow showers will continue on and off through the
middle of the week as the pattern remains unsettled.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

1000 PM Update...

Light lake effect snow showers are now reaching the ground over
southern Cayuga, Tompkins, and Cortland county as temperatures
and dewpoints have merged closer together. Adjusted Pops to
focus snow showers over these counties as a more organized band
moves through. Roads conditions are mainly wet as temperatures
are continuing to fall over the region. No other changes were
needed at this time as previous forecast still applies.

630 PM Update...

Updated temperatures and dew points with the latest observations
and blended this into the forecast. There continues to be a
10-15 degree difference between temperatures and dewpoints
keeping precipitation light over central NY.

330 PM Update...

Light lake effect snow showers continue across northern Oneida
county, and a few showers have developed in the last hour over
the Finger Lakes region, sliding south. Dewpoint depressions of
10-15 degrees across the region have kept most of the precip
showing up on radar as virga. Higher elevations heavier snow
showers have been able to break through the dry air and seen
snow at the surface. Most areas should not see any accumulations
this afternoon as the sun has kept surface temps in the mid
30s.

A 500mb shortwave trough moving through the eastern Great Lakes
has an associated low level positively tilted trough moving
into western NY this afternoon. Winds have started to shift from
mostly westerly to NWerly, continuing through the late
afternoon, and settling in to NW flow by the evening. 850mb
temps will be -7 to -8 through the early evening, which will
allow lake effect showers to develop, but they should be light
in nature. 850mb temps fall to -12 to -13 by the late evening,
and combined with more aligned NW flow, lake effect show
showers should gain steam across Onondaga, Madison and southern
Oneida counties. Snowfall amounts are expected to be between 1-3
inches across the aforementioned area.

The winds shift back SWerly Tuesday morning as a ridge builds
into the region from the SW. Lake effect showers will slide
north during the morning, but the ridge will not be in place for
long as a shortwave moves across the region from the Great
Lakes. Snow showers move back into region, with the best chances
across the Finger Lakes to northern Oneida beginning late
morning Tuesday through the evening. The sun angle is high
enough this time of year that most snow that falls will not
stick to the ground, and almost all of the snow that fell Monday
night should melt. Highs on Tuesday will reach the mid to upper
30s.

Snow showers will continue through the overnight hours as the
shortwave rotates through the region, with the best chance of
snow north of the Southern Tier. Another 1-3 inches of snow is
forecast across the eastern Finger Lakes into northern Oneida,
with the best chance for higher numbers across the higher
elevations. Temps will fall into the mid 20s to low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday will start off with a few snow showers around. However, as
we head into the afternoon a fairly potent shortwave looks to rotate
into the region. With some moisture from the Great Lakes a round of
fairly widespread showers mixed with graupel and snow showers should
develop as temperatures rise into the mid and upper 30`s.

Also conditions look favorable for the transport of strong wind
gusts of 30-40 mph that could get tapped to the surface with the
main wave of showers/snow showers in the afternoon, so some snow
squalls are possible. An element of instability in the form of
steep low lapse rates and CAPE of around 50 J/KG looks to be
present ahead of it as well. Temperatures look warm enough in
valley locations to where any accumulations would be light but a
quick half inch or so in higher elevations is not out of the
question. Typical residual west northwest flow lake effect
Wednesday night with another inch or two south of Syracuse into
Madison county.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure then looks to build into the region Thursday with any
lake effect snow showers shifting into the Finger Lakes and Southern
Tier early Thursday before finally breaking up. Despite the
potential for some afternoon sunshine highs will likely stay in the
30`s again.

More uncertainity is present for Friday through the weekend. The
spread within the ECMWF ensemble guidance continues to be very high.
For now, opted to stay close to our blended model guidance (NBM)
given the uncertainity with temperatures (30`s/40`s). However, more
solutions are trending in the direction of more interaction and in
the case of the 12Z GFS full phase between southern and northern
branches Friday night and Saturday. More interaction would
allow for more moisture to be drawn ahead of a disturbance
moving through the Great Lakes eastward into our region. For
now, increased the coverage of rain/snow in this time frame.
Given a much colder (10`s- 20`s for lows) and drier airmass
ahead of this system most of the region does have it`s best shot
in a while to get accumulating snow outside the traditional
lake effect areas.

A warming trend Sunday and Monday with high pressure passing by to
our north and east.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
805 PM Update

Light lake effect snow is impacting much of Central NY this
evening, but conditions are still mainly VFR to MVFR over the
region.

A more organized area of lake effect snow should develop
tonight, bringing IFR conditions to SYR. This will be
intermittent IFR restrictions, mainly visibility, now through
daybreak (around 11z Tuesday). The snow band then looks to lift
northeast, away from SYR later in the morning, with a return to
VFR conditions possible by mid to late morning.

Confidence for IFR conditions at RME was lower, so opted to
include a tempo group here in the taf, with the highest
probabilities appearing to be between 04-08z, when IFR vsbys
were mentioned. The lake effect band shifts north tomorrow
morning, but more snow showers are expected to move in ahead of
another system. There are timing difference in the latest high
resolution near term model guidance for when the light snow will
return. This lowered the confidence in the tafs after about
17-18z...as the HRRR/RAP suggested snow would redevelop across
much of CNY in the afternoon hours. Meanwhile the 3km NAM did
not bring additional widespread snow until after 22-24z
Tuesday....generally went between the two timing possibilities
for now, and will be able to better narrow down the timing for
more snow in later taf updates.

ITH and BGM will likely see intermittent MVFR restrictions (and
even a tempo for IFR at ITH) this evening and overnight as lake
effect snow showers move into the area. These should dissipate
and move north/east after 09z early Tuesday, leaving VFR
conditions into the afternoon hours. As mentioned above, some
MVFR snow/snow showers are forecast to develop sometime later
Tuesday afternoon or evening.


ELM will be mainly VFR through the period, but could see a tempo
MVFR snow shower this evening and again heading into Tuesday
evening.

AVP should remain VFR through the forecast period. Any snow
showers are not expected to reach that far south into NE PA at
this time.


Outlook...

Tuesday night...Snow showers likely across Central NY, with
associated restrictions.

Wednesday into Thursday...Another frontal system is expected to
bring restrictions with snow showers and possible squalls.

Thursday evening into Friday...Mainly VFR under weak high
pressure.

Friday night and Saturday...Chance of snow and rain with
another stronger low pressure system. Associated restrictions
possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...ES/JTC
SHORT TERM...MPK/MWG
LONG TERM...MPK/MWG
AVIATION...JTC/MJM

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion

Random Fact

Weather Terms

Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Conditions are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. These watches are issued for large areas by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, and are usually valid for four to six hours.